8. Handicapping: After it has raced a few times and been adequately assessed a horse is awarded a handicap mark that allows it to be compared to all other horses under that code (horses can have different handicap marks for turf, all-weather, chase and hurdles races). A horse's handicap figure is then adjusted by the official handicapper judged on its subsequent racing performances.
The mark a horse receives relates to the weight it carries in handicap races – the idea being that if all horses perform to their handicap mark on the day they will all dead heat for first place. For example, if a horse is allotted a mark of 94 and he wins a race, the handicapper may give him a 5lb rise meaning next time he runs his mark is 99 and so on.
Very often in handicaps at the Festival horses run against horses they have met before and so it is possible to use their handicap marks, and the distances that separated them in the past, to forecast the race’s outcome.
As a decent rule of thumb, 1lb equates to one length, so if horse A beats horse B by 4 lengths off level weights in a race and next time they meet horse A carries 7lbs more than horse B, there is a good chance that horse B will reverse the places, all other things (such as ground, distance etc) being equal.
9. Breeding: A horse’s pedigree can also give clues to its going preferences.
Horses with the influence of Turtle Island, Roselier, Sadler’s Wells, In The Wings, Cyborg and Gunner B in their bloodlines tend to prefer soft ground, whilst those descended from the likes of Beneficial, Accordion, Presenting, Supreme Leader and Strong Gale often enjoy a quicker surface.
Sires like Flemensfirth, Le Moss, Roselier and Gunner B are also excellent influences for stamina.
The more flat bred horses tend to prefer a better surface over jumps, whilst French breds often relish testing ground.
10. French Imports: It is often hard to get a handle on the form of French imports, especially those that don’t have an official flat rating but may, for example, have been running over hurdles already before coming to England.
Obvious though it may sound, a good guide is the prize money on offer in the races in which it has been running.
It is amazing how often a horse who has been running well in very valuable races in France goes off at a decent price on their debut in England. Original, at Kempton over Christmas, was a case in point. He won at 66-1 even though he’d been placed on each of his two previous starts in 18 runner, £30K plus, handicap hurdles in France. He had also finished second in three £15K chases in 2006. Had he had form like that in England he would surely have gone off at less than a quarter of those odds.
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