10 ways to exploit the formbook (part 2)

4. Flat Performers: Two things to look out for when a horse first runs over hurdles after a career on the flat are the horse’s rating and the trip he has been running over. In terms of the former, any horse with a rating of 80 or more is worthy of serious consideration in terms of ability. Trip wise, you want the horse to have shown form over at least 10 furlongs on the flat to have any realistic chance of staying well enough to win over hurdles. Horses who have been running over two miles on the flat invariably need further (two and half or three miles) over hurdles.

Finally, from a handicapping perspective, as a very rough rule of thumb a horse tends to be able to run to a rating around 30lbs higher over hurdles than on the flat. A horse rated 80 on the flat, therefore, should be capable of at least a mark of 110 over hurdles. If the horse has a lower rating than that over hurdles then he may be well handicapped.

5. Bumper Performers: Horses who run well in bumpers (national hunt flat races), which are almost all run over two miles, often need further when sent over hurdles / fences. This isn’t surprising given what we have already said about the preferences of stayers on the flat who switch to hurdles.

A rating of 100 plus is decent for any bumper former.

6. Point to Point Performers: Most point to points are run over around three miles. Horses graduating from the pointing scene, whether running in novice hurdles or chases, will often need three miles as well to show their best.

A Racing Post rating of 80 plus for a point to pointer is a respectable mark for a horse looking to race under rules.

7. Angles: Find winners is often about finding an angle - a change in circumstances that may allow a horse to improve on the form his has shown to date. As well as the more obvious ones (such as a change in trip or going) a few of the more profitable angles to look out for are a horse running in blinkers for the first time, a horse running for the first time after a breathing operation and horses running for the first time for a new stable, particularly a powerful one.