Beware of early Cheltenham Festival odds

This is a dangerous time of year for fans of jump racing excited by another winter's action on the horizon. High-quality performers from some of the top yards are starting to appear and it is terribly easy to be suckered into backing them for the
Cheltenham Festival.

Over the last few days, for example, Paul Nicholls has sent out two of his best novice chasers to enjoy bloodless victories. Tataniano is 12-1 for the Arkle after beating four rivals at Exeter, while Pride Of Dulcote hammered his two opponents at Worcester and is down to 16-1 for the RSA Chase.

But Pride Of Dulcote was lame after the race and, even if it is only a short-term problem, as was reported, the horse might not be Nicholls' main contender for the RSA Chase by the time March comes round.

Gullible Gordon is another from the yard with the same initial target after a deeply impressive win at Chepstow recently. Punters must not make Gullible Gordons of themselves. We are still in the "phoney war" part of the season. When the Paddy Power meeting at Cheltenham comes round next month, we will finally see good horses racing against each other, as opposed to duffing up second-raters, and that will be the time to start forming long-term Festival opinions.

Day 4 - final bets!

The last, but the best, day of the Festival and by the end of the meeting we'll have crowned another Gold Cup winner.

Here are the updated tips for today:

Triumph - Master of Arts

County Hurdle - Cockney Trucker

Albert Bartlett - Weapon's Amnesty (Toby Belch e/w)

Gold Cup - Star Du Mohaison and Albertas Run e/w

Foxhunters - Amicelli

Martin Pipe - Piraya e/w

Grand Annual - Poquelin

Day 3 bets

A terrible day for the bookies, but a great day for us thanks to Mikael D’Haguenet, Cooldine and Dunguib.

With the ground drying out all the time, the updated tips for today are:

Jewson – Northern Alliance

Pertemps – Scriptwriter

Ryanair – Voy Por Ustedes

World Hurdle – Kasbah Bliss

Festival Plate – Three Mirrors

Kim Muir – Aggie’s Lad

Day 2 final tips

Quevega did us a big favour in the last yesterday after a day of near misses, including with Maljimar.

Here are the updated tips for today:

National Hunt Chase - Coe

Ballymore Properties – Mikael d’Haguenet (Quwetwo e/w)

RSA Chase – Cooldine

Queen Mother – Big Zeb e/w

Coral Cup – Dancing Tornado (Star of Angels e/w)

Fred Winter – Alexander Severus

Champion Bumper – Dunguib

Day 1 tips update

Hear we go!!

Now the final fields and ground conditions are known, here are our updated tips for Day 1.

Supreme Novices: Cousin Vinny

Arkle: Planet of Sound

Will Hill Trophy: Maljimar

Champion Hurdle: Osana

Cross Country Chase: L'Ami

Mares Hurdle: Quevega

Good luck!!

Insider tips

The Festival previews and stable open days have now begun in earnest and here are some of the most interesting tips from those held during the past week:

Phillip Hobbs: Planet Of Sound (Arkle)
Paul Nicholls: Nictory Vote (Fred Winter), Celestial Halo (Champion Hurdle)
John Francome: Carruthers (RSA Chase)
Davy Russell: Mikael D’Haguenet (Ballymore Properties)
Mick Fitzgerald: Kasbah Bliss (World Hurdle)
Frank Berry, JP McManus’ racing manager: L’Ami (Cross Country Chase)
Dermot Weld: Rite Of Passage (Bumper)
Alan King: Thetwincamdrift (Albert Bartlett on soft), Penn Da Benn (e/w Coral Cup)
Robert Thornton: Walkon (Triumph Hurdle)

Click here for the latest Cheltenham Festival odds from William Hill and guarantee yourself the best odds at this year's Festival.

Trainer Watch

There are very few more important pointers to a runner’s chances at the Festival than the form of its yard.

However good it is and however strong its claims appear to be, a horse will have little or no chance of winning at Cheltenham if his stable is out of form. A lack of winners is a clear indication that all is not well with the health of a trainer’s string.

At the 2006 Festival, both Willie Mullins and Martin Pipe went to Cheltenham with a host of fancied runners and yet virtually all of them disappointed. It was clear from an early stage that all wasn’t well with their runners and so it paid to avoid or even lay them.

Of course, the opposite is also true and it can pay significant dividends if you can identify in form trainers early on at the meeting. For example, Ferdy Murphy has an excellent recent Festival record, particularly in handicap chases, and yet many of his runners are still allowed to go off at huge prices. Alan King has also done exceptionally well at Cheltenham in the last couple of seasons.

This year, Paul Nicholls, Willie Mullins and Nicky Henderson have had their horses in terrific form throughout the season and if they can continue in the same vein between now and the start of the Festival they will surely enjoy plenty of success at the big meeting.

Likewise, stables seemingly running into form at just the right time include those of Venetia Williams, Henrietta Knight and Jonjo O’Neill. That being the case, pay special attention to whatever Jonjo decides to run in the handicaps, over both hurdles and fences, and the National Hunt Chase. Because his horses were badly out of form for much of last season, and at the beginning of this, many of them are dangerously well handicapped.