Monday, 3 January 2011

New Year's Day meeting summary

Cheltenham hosted a fantastic card on Saturday, New Year's Day, and with just over 10 weeks remaining until the Festival there were plenty of ante-post betting clues.

The feature handicap of the day was a competitive, if not totally top-class, victorchandler.com Chase. Tartak looked to be struggling slightly coming down the hill, having to be scrubbed along by Paddy Brennan. However he responded well to sustained encouragement and stayed on strongest of all to pick up Nicky Henderson's mare Carole's Legacy near the line.

The winner's price for the Ryanair Chase was cut accordingly, now best-price 16/1 (William Hill) but whilst he looks to be creeping into that picture, the feeling is that last-year's Grand Annual fifth needs to improve by a few more pounds yet to win it.

The runner-up is a grand mare; big, adaptable and resilient, she was losing a bit of ground at each fence but she battled back to see off all but the latest of late challengers. She'll be back in the winners' enclosure soon, especially if back in against the girls and is best-price 12/1 (Bet365) for the Mares Only Hurdle in March.

Standout performer of the day was Oscar Whisky in the Cheltenham & Three Counties Race Club Hurdle, adding another cannon to Nicky Henderson's already envious Champion Hurdle battalion.

The form of the Supreme Novices' Hurdle from last year's Cheltenham Festival continues to receive boost after boost and the fourth home, Oscar Whisky, did it no harm once again. Held up off the pace in the early stages (as he tried an extra half-mile for the first time), the six-year-old crept into the race under Barry Geraghty.

When Celestial Halo and Karabak tried to kick on three hurdles from home, taking over from long time leader Barizan, Geraghty was content to sit quietly on his mount and it was easy to see why. He cruised between rivals on the turn for home and was still on the bridle at the last flight. He jumped that swiftly and accurately and stormed clear from Any Given Day up the run-in.

Bookmakers reacted to the performance by cutting the gelding into best-price 14/1 (Bet365) for the Champion Hurdle in March. The six-year-old is extremely unexposed after just his fourth run over timber and it's very hard to gauge just how good he is in relation to Menorah, especially as Saturday's race was over the extended two and a half miles. However, with less than four lengths to make up on their 2010 Supreme Novices' form, he's probably the best value bet in the Champion Hurdle ante-post market at present.

Karabak seems incapable of running two races the same and was disappointing here. Alan King's gelding wasn't at all fluent at some of his obstacles, and he was pushed along running down the hill. King commented: "Maybe it just came a little bit quick for him. It was only three weeks since the Relkeel. He's OK, we'll give him a nice break and you probably won't see him now until the Festival."

Karabak is set for a tilt at the World Hurdle for which the eight-year-old can now be backed at best-price 16/1 (Stan James).

Another winner for Barry Geraghty was Bobs Worth in the Neptune Investment Management Novices' Hurdle. Always travelling well, Geraghty moved him into contention at the top of the hill and from then on he always looked the one to beat.

He was cut to best-price 20/1 (Paddy Power) for the two mile, five furlong race at the Festival as a result of this run and it's easy to see why; this was an authoritative performance and he deserves to take on the top novices now.

There was a tremendous finish to one of the most hotly-anticipated novice races of the season, the Tigmi Travel Dipper Novices' Chase, although it's unlikely that many predicted the winner given the starting price of 16/1 for Hell's Bay.

Always travelling well in a race run at a strong tempo, he had to dig deep to repel the rallying Medermit in the final furlong but on this evidence he becomes a major player for the Jewson Novices Chase at the Festival, for which he is now best-price 14/1 (888sport).

The runner-up emerges with great credit also and the first two were 23 lengths clear of the third home. Alan King's gelding was up in trip for the first time but he travelled well into contention, jumping economically and accurately, before just bumping into a better horse on the day. He has done his Cheltenham Festival claims no harm at all and moved to favouritism for the new Jewson Novices' Chase at best-price 10/1 (Bet365). However, given the history of strong-stayers winning the Arkle allied with its more prestigious nature, that race (for which he is currently best-price 16/1 with 888sport) may still be the desired option.

Third-placed Reve De Sivola was fairly prominent throughout but he seemed to get outpaced before just plodding on up the hill. He seemed to jump better than when winning over the C+D last month, so this flat run is somewhat baffling. He can now be backed at best-price 20/1 (Paddy Power) for the RSA Chase and a standout best-price 16/1 (William Hill) for the Jewson Novices Chase (as short as 10/1 in places).

Mr Thriller weakened before the downhill run and dropped away quickly - he may not have been 100% after a couple of sloppy leaps and has drifted to best-price 33/1 (Stan James) for the Jewson in March (as short as 16/1 in places).

David Pipe admits it is "back to the drawing board" with the six-year-old. Rated over 160 at his peak as a hurdler, and sent off 7/2 favourite, having run such a good race first time out over fences when falling at the second-last when still holding every chance, Pipe had high-hopes of a big run. He reflected:

"He ran so well on his debut but if you look at his previous form then you can see that he usually runs well fresh, first time out, and then seems to deteriorate afterwards. It's back to the drawing board."

The win for Hell's Bay is also a boost for Time For Rupert form. The 23 lengths he beat Reve De Sivola by here, is the exact same distance between the rivals when they were both put in their place by the RSA Chase favourite. Paul Webber's charge has looked a very smart recruit to novice chasing in two starts this season and with his form looking solid it's hard to pick holes in the best-price 7/2 (Bet365) favourite, especially as major market rival Mikael d'Haguenet has plenty to prove following his disappointing effort earlier in the week at Leopardstown.

Perhaps the only reason for concern for Time For Rupert supporters is that we have to go back 20 years to find the last RSA Chase winner to have had more than one season over hurdles. The last such winner was Rolling Ball (1991), who was no great shakes over timber; the last pattern-class hurdler to win the RSA Chase that had raced over timber for more than one season was A Kinsman back in 1984.

Keys was the winner of the Listed bumper at Cheltenham on Saturday and Derby-winning trainer Roger Charlton has admitted that the horse's owner already has one eye on a return to Cheltenham in March.

The Barry Hurley-owned four-year-old completed a hat-trick of bumper wins with a last-gasp victory over the previously unbeaten Cinders And Ashes, earning a best-price quote of 16/1 (Victor Chandler) for the Champion Bumper in the process.

Oscar Whisky on the way to victory at Cheltenham on Saturday

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