Beware of early Cheltenham Festival odds

This is a dangerous time of year for fans of jump racing excited by another winter's action on the horizon. High-quality performers from some of the top yards are starting to appear and it is terribly easy to be suckered into backing them for the
Cheltenham Festival.

Over the last few days, for example, Paul Nicholls has sent out two of his best novice chasers to enjoy bloodless victories. Tataniano is 12-1 for the Arkle after beating four rivals at Exeter, while Pride Of Dulcote hammered his two opponents at Worcester and is down to 16-1 for the RSA Chase.

But Pride Of Dulcote was lame after the race and, even if it is only a short-term problem, as was reported, the horse might not be Nicholls' main contender for the RSA Chase by the time March comes round.

Gullible Gordon is another from the yard with the same initial target after a deeply impressive win at Chepstow recently. Punters must not make Gullible Gordons of themselves. We are still in the "phoney war" part of the season. When the Paddy Power meeting at Cheltenham comes round next month, we will finally see good horses racing against each other, as opposed to duffing up second-raters, and that will be the time to start forming long-term Festival opinions.