Trainer Watch

There are very few more important pointers to a runner’s chances at the Festival than the form of its yard.

However good it is and however strong its claims appear to be, a horse will have little or no chance of winning at Cheltenham if his stable is out of form. A lack of winners is a clear indication that all is not well with the health of a trainer’s string.

At the 2006 Festival, both Willie Mullins and Martin Pipe went to Cheltenham with a host of fancied runners and yet virtually all of them disappointed. It was clear from an early stage that all wasn’t well with their runners and so it paid to avoid or even lay them.

Of course, the opposite is also true and it can pay significant dividends if you can identify in form trainers early on at the meeting. For example, Ferdy Murphy has an excellent recent Festival record, particularly in handicap chases, and yet many of his runners are still allowed to go off at huge prices. Alan King has also done exceptionally well at Cheltenham in the last couple of seasons.

This year, Paul Nicholls, Willie Mullins and Nicky Henderson have had their horses in terrific form throughout the season and if they can continue in the same vein between now and the start of the Festival they will surely enjoy plenty of success at the big meeting.

Likewise, stables seemingly running into form at just the right time include those of Venetia Williams, Henrietta Knight and Jonjo O’Neill. That being the case, pay special attention to whatever Jonjo decides to run in the handicaps, over both hurdles and fences, and the National Hunt Chase. Because his horses were badly out of form for much of last season, and at the beginning of this, many of them are dangerously well handicapped.