2 horse race...or is it?

The entries for the Gold Cup have now been published and the bookies certainly see this year’s renewal as a two horse race between the giants of the sport, Kauto Star and Denman.

But could an analysis of recent trends identify any other candidates for the shortlist? Let’s see how the leading contenders measure up:

· Nine out of the last ten winners were aged between 7 and 9 – this is negative for War Of Attrition.

· Nine out of the last ten winners had previously won a Grade 1 race – this is a negative for Barbers Shop and Big Bucks.

· Nine out of the last ten winners had previously won or been second in a race at Cheltenham – this is a negative for Neptune Collonges.

· Nine out of the last ten winners had had between 2 and 4 previous outings that season – this looks like being a negative for Denman.

· All of the last ten winners had previously had between 6 and 12 runs over fences – this is a negative for Kauto Star and Exotic Dancer.

· Nine out of the last ten winners had previously been placed at the Festival – this is a negative for Big Bucks.

· Only one winner in the last ten years had not contested either the King George or Lexus Chase – this is a negative for the likes of Denman, Barbers Shop and Tidal Bay.

· Eight out of the last ten winners had previously won over three miles plus – this is a negative for Tidal Bay and Finger Onthe Pulse.

· Eight out of the last ten winners had won a Graded chase that season – this is a negative for the likes of Air Force One, Albertas Run, Denman and Tidal Bay.

· No Gold Cup winner has won his crown back – this is a negative for Kauto Star and War Of Attrition.

· No horse placed in the Gold Cup has improved enough to win it 12 months later – this is a negative for Neptune Collonges.

If we follow the trends, the most likely result of the 2009 Gold Cup would appear to be - 1st Albertas Run, 2nd Kauto Star, 3rd Exotic Dancer.