10 ways to exploit the formbook (part 1)

With the 2009 Cheltenham Festival almost upon us, we thought we'd take a look at some of the most important factors all good punters take into consideration every year when placing their Festival bets. The first 3 are listed below; check back over the coming days for insights into Point to Point Performers, Handicapping, Breeding and more!

1. Distance: By reviewing the comments in running relating to a horse’s previous races it is possible to determine how that horse might be suited by a change in trip in the future. Comments such as “one paced” or “stayed on” suggest that a horse might need further. Likewise, if a horse is said to have “weakened” or “faded” he may not have seen out the trip and might benefit from dropping back in distance.

In the big handicaps at Cheltenham it is well worth finding horses who might be suited by a step down or (more usually) up in trip as the change may help that horse find those few pounds of improvement necessary to keep them ahead of the handicapper.

2. Going: The comments in running can also help determine a horse’s preferred ground conditions. Horses that are quoted as having been “travelling well” or making “smooth progress” are often suited by better ground that allows them to use their high cruising speed to full advantage.

Look out also for horses with winning form on a decent surface, who have been running on unsuitable soft ground, and now find themselves back on good ground.

3. Trainers: Possibly the single most important section in the Racing Post is that which highlights the hot and cold trainers. Horses rarely win when their stables are badly out of form. Likewise, when a stable runs into form a horse can often leave previously disappointing form behind. The key is to identify the point at which the tide changes for a trainer (either for better or for worse)

We’ll be keeping a close eye on the form of the leading trainers in the run up to year’s Festival.

To highlight the point, at the 2006 Festival, both Willie Mullins and Martin Pipe went to Cheltenham with a host of fancied runners and yet virtually all of them disappointed. It was clear from an early stage that all wasn’t well with their runners and so it paid to avoid or even lay them.

Of course, the opposite is also true and it can pay significant dividends if you can identify in form trainers early on at the meeting. For example, Ferdy Murphy has an excellent recent Festival record, particularly in handicap chases, and yet many of his runners are still allowed to go off at huge prices. Alan King has also done exceptionally well at Cheltenham in recent seasons.