Noel Meade ended a 50 day drought at Punchestown with a 17-1 double on Wednesday (20 February), having previously sent out 54 runners without a winner. Whilst this is obviously great news for supporters of horses like Harchibald it also highlights an important factor that must be taken into account when making any selection for a race at the Festival – trainer form.
There are very few more important pointers to a runner’s chances than the form of its yard. However good it is and however strong its claims appear to be, a horse will have little or no chance of winning at Cheltenham if his stable is out of form. A lack of winners is a clear indication that all is not well with the health of a trainer’s string.
This is a particularly pertinent point when looking at contenders from powerful stables, such as Jonjo O’Neill and Peter Bowen. Both trainers are badly out of form at the moment and it would be impossible to back any of their horses with any confidence. So, unless either man starts sending out winners between now and the second week of March, we may be able to discount the likes of Exotic Dancer (Gold Cup), Wichita Lineman (World Hurdle), Serebad (Triumph Hurdle) and Special Envoy (World Hurdle).
At the 2006 Festival, both Willie Mullins and Martin Pipe went to Cheltenham with a host of fancied runners and yet virtually all of them disappointed. It was clear from an early stage that all wasn’t well with their runners and so it paid to avoid or even lay them.
Of course, the opposite is also true and it can pay significant dividends if you can identify in form trainers early on at the meeting. For example, Ferdy Murphy has an excellent recent Festival record, particularly in handicap chases, and yet many of his runners are still allowed to go off at huge prices. Alan King has also done exceptionally well at Cheltenham in recent seasons.
This year, Paul Nicholls’ and Nicky Henderson’s horses have been in terrific form and if they can continue in the same vein between now and the start of the Festival they will surely enjoy plenty of success at the big meeting.
1 comment:
TRainer form is massively important and and anyone thinking of steaming into Inglis Drever would have to be a little worried.
I think the bigger stars in the stables tend to be affected less as they are somewhat wrapped up in cotton wool but if you are backing in any handicaps in a fortnights time you have to look at the trainer form.
All the best
Post a Comment