Wednesday, 13 February 2008

Kauto or Denman? Our opinion

We’d been firmly in the Kauto camp before the weekend, but you couldn’t help but be mightily impressed with Denman on Saturday and we are certainly in for a treat on 14th March, provided both horses make it to the start in one piece.

Interestingly, the trend in recent seasons has been for Gold Cup winners to posses speed, rather than stamina.

The race was originally created as a Grand National trial, and the successes in the 1990s for horses like Cool Ground, Cool Dawn and Master Oats showed that galloping, staying types were needed to win the race, and the Sun Alliance Chase (over three miles plus) seemed a better stepping stone for novices with Gold Cup aspirations.

However, things have changed dramatically in recent years (possibly coinciding with the new drainage system at Cheltenham, which seems to ensure decent ground), with the Arkle and other top novice chases over two miles supplying more Gold Cup winners. In fact, Looks Like Trouble, in 2000, was the last Sun Alliance Chase winner to go on and win the Gold Cup, whereas Kicking King, War of Attrition and Kauto Star himself all ran in their season’s Arkle (as would Best Mate have done had it not been for foot and mouth).

If speed is still the decisive factor, then Kauto Star should win again. However, Denman doesn’t appear to be the stereotypical, staying galloper. He seems able to set gut wrenching fractions throughout his races, that simply rip the heart out of his opponents.

Kauto Star was nicknamed the Extraterrestrial by his connections in France, before he was sold to race in England, and he’ll need to put up a performance out of this world to beat Denman if they are both at their best on Gold Cup day. However, we believe that he is ready to live up to that nickname and do just that.

Kauto hasn’t always received due credit for his amazing record over fences to date, but if he is able to secure back to back Gold Cup victories then we may, at last, have found a true rival to Arkle.

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