There are very few more important pointers to a runner’s chances at the Festival than the form of its yard.
However good it is and however strong its claims appear to be, a horse will have little or no chance of winning at Cheltenham if his stable is out of form. A lack of winners is a clear indication that all is not well with the health of a trainer’s string.
At the 2006 Festival, both Willie Mullins and Martin Pipe went to Cheltenham with a host of fancied runners and yet virtually all of them disappointed. It was clear from an early stage that all wasn’t well with their runners and so it paid to avoid or even lay them.
Of course, the opposite is also true and it can pay significant dividends if you can identify in form trainers early on at the meeting. For example, Ferdy Murphy has an excellent recent Festival record, particularly in handicap chases, and yet many of his runners are still allowed to go off at huge prices. Alan King has also done exceptionally well at Cheltenham in the last couple of seasons.
This year, Paul Nicholls, Willie Mullins and Nicky Henderson have had their horses in terrific form throughout the season and if they can continue in the same vein between now and the start of the Festival they will surely enjoy plenty of success at the big meeting.
Likewise, stables seemingly running into form at just the right time include those of Venetia Williams, Henrietta Knight and Jonjo O’Neill. That being the case, pay special attention to whatever Jonjo decides to run in the handicaps, over both hurdles and fences, and the National Hunt Chase. Because his horses were badly out of form for much of last season, and at the beginning of this, many of them are dangerously well handicapped.
Saturday, 28 February 2009
Tuesday, 24 February 2009
William Hill - lambs to the slaughter?
Further to the news that bookmakers William Hill have been unveiled as the new sponsors of the williamhill.com Supreme Novices' Hurdle - the famous curtain raiser to the Cheltenham Festival each year - they have gone one better and decided to sponsor our Cheltenham Festival tipping website and blog!
Last year's sponsors actually declined the opportunity to advertise this Festival, given that our winning tips meant they ended up down from new customers we referred them! Hence, we hope to be looking for a new sponsor again next year.
Open an account with William Hill today, safe in the knowledge that their "Best odds" guarantee means that any ante-post Festival bets you place now will be settled at the Starting Price if your selection goes off at a bigger price on the day.
Last year's sponsors actually declined the opportunity to advertise this Festival, given that our winning tips meant they ended up down from new customers we referred them! Hence, we hope to be looking for a new sponsor again next year.
Open an account with William Hill today, safe in the knowledge that their "Best odds" guarantee means that any ante-post Festival bets you place now will be settled at the Starting Price if your selection goes off at a bigger price on the day.
Sunday, 15 February 2009
Festival Bankers?
Relief all round for jumps racing enthusiasts as, after all of the bad weather we have had to endure in recent weeks, we finally had a full programme of meetings on Saturday, and very few days this season have thrown up quite so many significant Festival clues.
Indeed, one of the winners we saw could now quite realistically be described as banker material for Cheltenham in three weeks time, such was the impression that Voy Por Ustedes created in winning the Betfair Ascot Chase.
The Ryanair Chase now looks to be his to lose as the former Champion Chaser proved, beyond doubt, his stamina for the 2m 5f trip. He easily brushed aside his rivals at Ascot, despite racing on unsuitably soft ground, and on a decent surface at the Festival his class will surely prevail.
With Noland now out of the Ryanair, the race is in danger of cutting up badly and the 9-4 currently available about Voy Por Ustedes could easily look like the best value of the meeting come the penultimate day of the Festival.
We’ve already highlighted here the chances of Kasbah Bliss in the World Hurdle and he did nothing dent our hopes when cruising home in the Rendlesham Hurdle at Haydock, again on ground he doesn’t like. It was a hugely impressive seasonal reappearance and he clearly replicated his improved form on the flat from this summer on his return to hurdling.
Carruthers was another impressive winner at Ascot and will try to emulate Albertas Run who won the Reynoldstown Chase last season before claiming the RSA Chase at the Festival. He jumps and stays extremely well, and should be better served going left handed, and so has to go on to the shortlist for Cheltenham.
Other performances to note included Vino Griego (for the Bumper), Wendel (for the Ballymore Properties), Murphys Cardinal (for the Foxhunters) and Tarablaze (for the Albert Bartlett).
We’ll be amazed if at least one Festival winner wasn’t in action at either Ascot or Haydock.
Indeed, one of the winners we saw could now quite realistically be described as banker material for Cheltenham in three weeks time, such was the impression that Voy Por Ustedes created in winning the Betfair Ascot Chase.
The Ryanair Chase now looks to be his to lose as the former Champion Chaser proved, beyond doubt, his stamina for the 2m 5f trip. He easily brushed aside his rivals at Ascot, despite racing on unsuitably soft ground, and on a decent surface at the Festival his class will surely prevail.
With Noland now out of the Ryanair, the race is in danger of cutting up badly and the 9-4 currently available about Voy Por Ustedes could easily look like the best value of the meeting come the penultimate day of the Festival.
We’ve already highlighted here the chances of Kasbah Bliss in the World Hurdle and he did nothing dent our hopes when cruising home in the Rendlesham Hurdle at Haydock, again on ground he doesn’t like. It was a hugely impressive seasonal reappearance and he clearly replicated his improved form on the flat from this summer on his return to hurdling.
Carruthers was another impressive winner at Ascot and will try to emulate Albertas Run who won the Reynoldstown Chase last season before claiming the RSA Chase at the Festival. He jumps and stays extremely well, and should be better served going left handed, and so has to go on to the shortlist for Cheltenham.
Other performances to note included Vino Griego (for the Bumper), Wendel (for the Ballymore Properties), Murphys Cardinal (for the Foxhunters) and Tarablaze (for the Albert Bartlett).
We’ll be amazed if at least one Festival winner wasn’t in action at either Ascot or Haydock.
Monday, 9 February 2009
10 ways to exploit the formbook (part 3)
8. Handicapping: After it has raced a few times and been adequately assessed a horse is awarded a handicap mark that allows it to be compared to all other horses under that code (horses can have different handicap marks for turf, all-weather, chase and hurdles races). A horse's handicap figure is then adjusted by the official handicapper judged on its subsequent racing performances.
The mark a horse receives relates to the weight it carries in handicap races – the idea being that if all horses perform to their handicap mark on the day they will all dead heat for first place. For example, if a horse is allotted a mark of 94 and he wins a race, the handicapper may give him a 5lb rise meaning next time he runs his mark is 99 and so on.
Very often in handicaps at the Festival horses run against horses they have met before and so it is possible to use their handicap marks, and the distances that separated them in the past, to forecast the race’s outcome.
As a decent rule of thumb, 1lb equates to one length, so if horse A beats horse B by 4 lengths off level weights in a race and next time they meet horse A carries 7lbs more than horse B, there is a good chance that horse B will reverse the places, all other things (such as ground, distance etc) being equal.
9. Breeding: A horse’s pedigree can also give clues to its going preferences.
Horses with the influence of Turtle Island, Roselier, Sadler’s Wells, In The Wings, Cyborg and Gunner B in their bloodlines tend to prefer soft ground, whilst those descended from the likes of Beneficial, Accordion, Presenting, Supreme Leader and Strong Gale often enjoy a quicker surface.
Sires like Flemensfirth, Le Moss, Roselier and Gunner B are also excellent influences for stamina.
The more flat bred horses tend to prefer a better surface over jumps, whilst French breds often relish testing ground.
10. French Imports: It is often hard to get a handle on the form of French imports, especially those that don’t have an official flat rating but may, for example, have been running over hurdles already before coming to England.
Obvious though it may sound, a good guide is the prize money on offer in the races in which it has been running.
It is amazing how often a horse who has been running well in very valuable races in France goes off at a decent price on their debut in England. Original, at Kempton over Christmas, was a case in point. He won at 66-1 even though he’d been placed on each of his two previous starts in 18 runner, £30K plus, handicap hurdles in France. He had also finished second in three £15K chases in 2006. Had he had form like that in England he would surely have gone off at less than a quarter of those odds.
The mark a horse receives relates to the weight it carries in handicap races – the idea being that if all horses perform to their handicap mark on the day they will all dead heat for first place. For example, if a horse is allotted a mark of 94 and he wins a race, the handicapper may give him a 5lb rise meaning next time he runs his mark is 99 and so on.
Very often in handicaps at the Festival horses run against horses they have met before and so it is possible to use their handicap marks, and the distances that separated them in the past, to forecast the race’s outcome.
As a decent rule of thumb, 1lb equates to one length, so if horse A beats horse B by 4 lengths off level weights in a race and next time they meet horse A carries 7lbs more than horse B, there is a good chance that horse B will reverse the places, all other things (such as ground, distance etc) being equal.
9. Breeding: A horse’s pedigree can also give clues to its going preferences.
Horses with the influence of Turtle Island, Roselier, Sadler’s Wells, In The Wings, Cyborg and Gunner B in their bloodlines tend to prefer soft ground, whilst those descended from the likes of Beneficial, Accordion, Presenting, Supreme Leader and Strong Gale often enjoy a quicker surface.
Sires like Flemensfirth, Le Moss, Roselier and Gunner B are also excellent influences for stamina.
The more flat bred horses tend to prefer a better surface over jumps, whilst French breds often relish testing ground.
10. French Imports: It is often hard to get a handle on the form of French imports, especially those that don’t have an official flat rating but may, for example, have been running over hurdles already before coming to England.
Obvious though it may sound, a good guide is the prize money on offer in the races in which it has been running.
It is amazing how often a horse who has been running well in very valuable races in France goes off at a decent price on their debut in England. Original, at Kempton over Christmas, was a case in point. He won at 66-1 even though he’d been placed on each of his two previous starts in 18 runner, £30K plus, handicap hurdles in France. He had also finished second in three £15K chases in 2006. Had he had form like that in England he would surely have gone off at less than a quarter of those odds.
Wednesday, 4 February 2009
10 ways to exploit the formbook (part 2)
4. Flat Performers: Two things to look out for when a horse first runs over hurdles after a career on the flat are the horse’s rating and the trip he has been running over. In terms of the former, any horse with a rating of 80 or more is worthy of serious consideration in terms of ability. Trip wise, you want the horse to have shown form over at least 10 furlongs on the flat to have any realistic chance of staying well enough to win over hurdles. Horses who have been running over two miles on the flat invariably need further (two and half or three miles) over hurdles.
Finally, from a handicapping perspective, as a very rough rule of thumb a horse tends to be able to run to a rating around 30lbs higher over hurdles than on the flat. A horse rated 80 on the flat, therefore, should be capable of at least a mark of 110 over hurdles. If the horse has a lower rating than that over hurdles then he may be well handicapped.
5. Bumper Performers: Horses who run well in bumpers (national hunt flat races), which are almost all run over two miles, often need further when sent over hurdles / fences. This isn’t surprising given what we have already said about the preferences of stayers on the flat who switch to hurdles.
A rating of 100 plus is decent for any bumper former.
6. Point to Point Performers: Most point to points are run over around three miles. Horses graduating from the pointing scene, whether running in novice hurdles or chases, will often need three miles as well to show their best.
A Racing Post rating of 80 plus for a point to pointer is a respectable mark for a horse looking to race under rules.
7. Angles: Find winners is often about finding an angle - a change in circumstances that may allow a horse to improve on the form his has shown to date. As well as the more obvious ones (such as a change in trip or going) a few of the more profitable angles to look out for are a horse running in blinkers for the first time, a horse running for the first time after a breathing operation and horses running for the first time for a new stable, particularly a powerful one.
Finally, from a handicapping perspective, as a very rough rule of thumb a horse tends to be able to run to a rating around 30lbs higher over hurdles than on the flat. A horse rated 80 on the flat, therefore, should be capable of at least a mark of 110 over hurdles. If the horse has a lower rating than that over hurdles then he may be well handicapped.
5. Bumper Performers: Horses who run well in bumpers (national hunt flat races), which are almost all run over two miles, often need further when sent over hurdles / fences. This isn’t surprising given what we have already said about the preferences of stayers on the flat who switch to hurdles.
A rating of 100 plus is decent for any bumper former.
6. Point to Point Performers: Most point to points are run over around three miles. Horses graduating from the pointing scene, whether running in novice hurdles or chases, will often need three miles as well to show their best.
A Racing Post rating of 80 plus for a point to pointer is a respectable mark for a horse looking to race under rules.
7. Angles: Find winners is often about finding an angle - a change in circumstances that may allow a horse to improve on the form his has shown to date. As well as the more obvious ones (such as a change in trip or going) a few of the more profitable angles to look out for are a horse running in blinkers for the first time, a horse running for the first time after a breathing operation and horses running for the first time for a new stable, particularly a powerful one.
Sunday, 1 February 2009
Handicap hints
There were a number of informative contests run at both Sandown and Doncaster this Saturday (31 January).
Celestial Halo and Osana both ran decent Champion Hurdle trials at Sandown. The latter, in particular, impressed given the time he has been off the track since finishing runner up in both the big hurdle races at Cheltenham and Aintree last spring. He is sure to come on for the run and has to be on the shortlist for those looking to take on hot favourite Binocular.
Celestial Halo, too, shouldn’t be discounted given that he has winning Festival form over the Champion Hurdle trip (in last season’s Triumph Hurdle).
We’ve mentioned previously that there was still time for contenders to emerge for this year’s Triumph Hurdle and Master Of Arts put himself right in the frame for a crack at the premier juvenile event of the season by winning on his debut at Doncaster. He cosily beat a decent field and should improve again for even better ground given his decent form on the Flat last summer. The Pipe yard is also starting to run into form, which is encouraging.
The other two performances to note came in handicaps.
At Sandown, Night Cru ran an eye catching race in the valuable Grade 3 Totescoop6 Heroes Handicap Hurdle. He was also decent on the Flat, but has taken time to find his form over hurdles. He travelled ominously well in behind the leaders here and if re-united with Tony McCoy at the Festival could prove to still be ahead of the handicapper.
Meanwhile at Doncaster, Three Mirrors ran much better in the Williamhill Handicap Chase than his finishing position suggests. The two mile trip was always going to be on the short side for him, and he warrants serious consideration for any 2 ½ mile handicap on decent ground. Given Ferdy Murphy’s excellent recent record with chasers at the Festival, something like the Racing Post Plate could be an ideal target.
Celestial Halo and Osana both ran decent Champion Hurdle trials at Sandown. The latter, in particular, impressed given the time he has been off the track since finishing runner up in both the big hurdle races at Cheltenham and Aintree last spring. He is sure to come on for the run and has to be on the shortlist for those looking to take on hot favourite Binocular.
Celestial Halo, too, shouldn’t be discounted given that he has winning Festival form over the Champion Hurdle trip (in last season’s Triumph Hurdle).
We’ve mentioned previously that there was still time for contenders to emerge for this year’s Triumph Hurdle and Master Of Arts put himself right in the frame for a crack at the premier juvenile event of the season by winning on his debut at Doncaster. He cosily beat a decent field and should improve again for even better ground given his decent form on the Flat last summer. The Pipe yard is also starting to run into form, which is encouraging.
The other two performances to note came in handicaps.
At Sandown, Night Cru ran an eye catching race in the valuable Grade 3 Totescoop6 Heroes Handicap Hurdle. He was also decent on the Flat, but has taken time to find his form over hurdles. He travelled ominously well in behind the leaders here and if re-united with Tony McCoy at the Festival could prove to still be ahead of the handicapper.
Meanwhile at Doncaster, Three Mirrors ran much better in the Williamhill Handicap Chase than his finishing position suggests. The two mile trip was always going to be on the short side for him, and he warrants serious consideration for any 2 ½ mile handicap on decent ground. Given Ferdy Murphy’s excellent recent record with chasers at the Festival, something like the Racing Post Plate could be an ideal target.
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