Festival preview season has started in earnest and via our Blog we’ll bring you all the gossip from the forums being held right across the country. With many of the previews being attended by leading trainers, some of their insights are likely to prove invaluable to punters.
We’ll also bring you the news from the stable open days laid on by trainers for the press.
Here are the tips we’ve gleaned so far, together with details of the source of the information:
Paul Nicholls: Dear Villez, (Jewson), Cedlestial Halo (Triumph)
David Pipe: My Immortal, (Fulke Walwyn / Kim Muir)
Philip Hobbs: Parsons Legacy (Fulke Walwyn / Kim Muir), Ring The Boss e/w, (Arkle)
Alan King: Franchoek (Triumph)
Friday, 29 February 2008
Thursday, 28 February 2008
Will Irish Eyes Be Smiling?
One of the most popular special bets at the Festival is the number of Irish trained winners there'll be.
In its current market, Paddy Power surprisingly has 8 or more winners as its 5-2 favourite, even though the challenge from the Emerald Isle looks the weakest it's been for many years.
The only blue riband event in which the Irish are likely to put up a serious challenge is the Champion Hurdle. They have little or no hope of lifting the Gold Cup, Champion Chase or World Hurdle.
To make matters worse, their best novice chaser, Glencove Marina, is out injured and their supposedly number one Bumper prospect, Time Electric, bypasses the Festival and heads straight to Punchestown.
Once you factor in as well the unusual strength in depth of the home contingent in the Supreme Novice Hurdle and Ballymore Properties Hurdle (races in which the Irish have traditionally flourished in recent seasons) it is easy to start painting a relatively bleak picture of their prospects.
Of course, the Irish are bound to still have strong claims in the Festival Bumper and in other events like the Cross Country Chase. In addition, there are sure to be some horses from the powerful yards of Tony Martin, Edward O'Grady and the like who have been laid out all winter for one of the big handicaps.
However, at this stage, less than 8 winners looks a real possibility and, from a punting perspective, the value surely lies with 5 winners (4-1) or 6 winners (also 4-1).
In its current market, Paddy Power surprisingly has 8 or more winners as its 5-2 favourite, even though the challenge from the Emerald Isle looks the weakest it's been for many years.
The only blue riband event in which the Irish are likely to put up a serious challenge is the Champion Hurdle. They have little or no hope of lifting the Gold Cup, Champion Chase or World Hurdle.
To make matters worse, their best novice chaser, Glencove Marina, is out injured and their supposedly number one Bumper prospect, Time Electric, bypasses the Festival and heads straight to Punchestown.
Once you factor in as well the unusual strength in depth of the home contingent in the Supreme Novice Hurdle and Ballymore Properties Hurdle (races in which the Irish have traditionally flourished in recent seasons) it is easy to start painting a relatively bleak picture of their prospects.
Of course, the Irish are bound to still have strong claims in the Festival Bumper and in other events like the Cross Country Chase. In addition, there are sure to be some horses from the powerful yards of Tony Martin, Edward O'Grady and the like who have been laid out all winter for one of the big handicaps.
However, at this stage, less than 8 winners looks a real possibility and, from a punting perspective, the value surely lies with 5 winners (4-1) or 6 winners (also 4-1).
Friday, 22 February 2008
Trainer Watch
Noel Meade ended a 50 day drought at Punchestown with a 17-1 double on Wednesday (20 February), having previously sent out 54 runners without a winner. Whilst this is obviously great news for supporters of horses like Harchibald it also highlights an important factor that must be taken into account when making any selection for a race at the Festival – trainer form.
There are very few more important pointers to a runner’s chances than the form of its yard. However good it is and however strong its claims appear to be, a horse will have little or no chance of winning at Cheltenham if his stable is out of form. A lack of winners is a clear indication that all is not well with the health of a trainer’s string.
This is a particularly pertinent point when looking at contenders from powerful stables, such as Jonjo O’Neill and Peter Bowen. Both trainers are badly out of form at the moment and it would be impossible to back any of their horses with any confidence. So, unless either man starts sending out winners between now and the second week of March, we may be able to discount the likes of Exotic Dancer (Gold Cup), Wichita Lineman (World Hurdle), Serebad (Triumph Hurdle) and Special Envoy (World Hurdle).
At the 2006 Festival, both Willie Mullins and Martin Pipe went to Cheltenham with a host of fancied runners and yet virtually all of them disappointed. It was clear from an early stage that all wasn’t well with their runners and so it paid to avoid or even lay them.
Of course, the opposite is also true and it can pay significant dividends if you can identify in form trainers early on at the meeting. For example, Ferdy Murphy has an excellent recent Festival record, particularly in handicap chases, and yet many of his runners are still allowed to go off at huge prices. Alan King has also done exceptionally well at Cheltenham in recent seasons.
This year, Paul Nicholls’ and Nicky Henderson’s horses have been in terrific form and if they can continue in the same vein between now and the start of the Festival they will surely enjoy plenty of success at the big meeting.
There are very few more important pointers to a runner’s chances than the form of its yard. However good it is and however strong its claims appear to be, a horse will have little or no chance of winning at Cheltenham if his stable is out of form. A lack of winners is a clear indication that all is not well with the health of a trainer’s string.
This is a particularly pertinent point when looking at contenders from powerful stables, such as Jonjo O’Neill and Peter Bowen. Both trainers are badly out of form at the moment and it would be impossible to back any of their horses with any confidence. So, unless either man starts sending out winners between now and the second week of March, we may be able to discount the likes of Exotic Dancer (Gold Cup), Wichita Lineman (World Hurdle), Serebad (Triumph Hurdle) and Special Envoy (World Hurdle).
At the 2006 Festival, both Willie Mullins and Martin Pipe went to Cheltenham with a host of fancied runners and yet virtually all of them disappointed. It was clear from an early stage that all wasn’t well with their runners and so it paid to avoid or even lay them.
Of course, the opposite is also true and it can pay significant dividends if you can identify in form trainers early on at the meeting. For example, Ferdy Murphy has an excellent recent Festival record, particularly in handicap chases, and yet many of his runners are still allowed to go off at huge prices. Alan King has also done exceptionally well at Cheltenham in recent seasons.
This year, Paul Nicholls’ and Nicky Henderson’s horses have been in terrific form and if they can continue in the same vein between now and the start of the Festival they will surely enjoy plenty of success at the big meeting.
Tuesday, 19 February 2008
Maserati v Tank
A scintillating victory for Kauto Star in Saturday's First Commercial Bank Chase at Ascot has well and truly set up the biggest showdown National Hunt racing has seen for nearly half a century.
On 14 March the talking will stop and (God willing) the clash between the Paul Nicholls pair, fittingly described by Denman's part owner, Harry Findley, as the Maserati and the Tank, will finally be on.
We've already declared our loyalty to the reigning champion in previous Blogs and Kauto Star's performance on Saturday reinforced our belief that he'll retain his crown at the Festival.
It was an imperious victory, which was overshadowed slightly by the post race injury scare that briefly threatened his participation in the Gold Cup. However, the fact is that he beat a much better field than Denman did in his trial (albeit not quite so easily) and in doing so jumped and travelled as well as he has probably ever done. Ruby Walsh's post race smile told us everything we needed to know as it was a rare show of emotion from the usually ice cool Irishman.
There is no pace that Denman can set that Kauto Star won’t be able to lie up with and he certainly wasn't stopping either on Saturday or in the King George, suggesting that stamina shouldn’t be an issue either, provided the ground is decent.
The Gold Cup will clearly be a race to saviour, rather than bet on, given the dominance (and, therefore, short prices) of the two principles. However, the race will offer some opportunities for punters, and the market without the big two looks particularly interesting.
With that in mind, there were two other performances of note on Saturday.
Firstly, Neptune Collonges was very impressive when humping top weight to victory in the big race at Wincanton. These days, Jon Hales' grey appears to prefer better ground, which is a big plus given the trend for good going at recent Festivals. He will also be suited by the fierce pace Denman is likely to set and so he could easily be part of a Paul Nicholls 1-2-3.
Meanwhile, at Gowran Park Kicking King's Gold Cup hopes seem to disappear, after a lacklustre performance saw him finish third behind rank outsider Ballistraw in the Red Mills Chase. Connections will be hoping that it was the bounce factor that caused Tom Taaffe's gelding to run so poorly. However, as we have highlighted previously, the form of his comeback race hasn't worked out at all well and it may be that it is asking too much of this former champ to reach the peak he did three years ago.
On 14 March the talking will stop and (God willing) the clash between the Paul Nicholls pair, fittingly described by Denman's part owner, Harry Findley, as the Maserati and the Tank, will finally be on.
We've already declared our loyalty to the reigning champion in previous Blogs and Kauto Star's performance on Saturday reinforced our belief that he'll retain his crown at the Festival.
It was an imperious victory, which was overshadowed slightly by the post race injury scare that briefly threatened his participation in the Gold Cup. However, the fact is that he beat a much better field than Denman did in his trial (albeit not quite so easily) and in doing so jumped and travelled as well as he has probably ever done. Ruby Walsh's post race smile told us everything we needed to know as it was a rare show of emotion from the usually ice cool Irishman.
There is no pace that Denman can set that Kauto Star won’t be able to lie up with and he certainly wasn't stopping either on Saturday or in the King George, suggesting that stamina shouldn’t be an issue either, provided the ground is decent.
The Gold Cup will clearly be a race to saviour, rather than bet on, given the dominance (and, therefore, short prices) of the two principles. However, the race will offer some opportunities for punters, and the market without the big two looks particularly interesting.
With that in mind, there were two other performances of note on Saturday.
Firstly, Neptune Collonges was very impressive when humping top weight to victory in the big race at Wincanton. These days, Jon Hales' grey appears to prefer better ground, which is a big plus given the trend for good going at recent Festivals. He will also be suited by the fierce pace Denman is likely to set and so he could easily be part of a Paul Nicholls 1-2-3.
Meanwhile, at Gowran Park Kicking King's Gold Cup hopes seem to disappear, after a lacklustre performance saw him finish third behind rank outsider Ballistraw in the Red Mills Chase. Connections will be hoping that it was the bounce factor that caused Tom Taaffe's gelding to run so poorly. However, as we have highlighted previously, the form of his comeback race hasn't worked out at all well and it may be that it is asking too much of this former champ to reach the peak he did three years ago.
Sunday, 17 February 2008
Don't Ignore the Stablemate
It has been a remarkable season for Nicky Henderson and Paul Nicholls trained novice hurdlers, so much so that it is no exaggeration to say that Cheltenham could easily stage competitive, top class renewals of the Supreme Novices Hurdle and Ballymore Properties Hurdle comprising only of runners from those two powerful stables.
To emphasis the point, Nicky Henderson unleashed another potential star on Friday (15th February) when Punchestowns won in impressive fashion on his hurdling debut at Sandown.
However, anyone who has closely followed Martin Pipe’s runners at the Festival, particularly in handicap chases, will know that it isn’t always a stable’s apparent first string that wins the day.
It is highly likely that Henderson and Nicholls will have more than one runner in each of the big novice hurdles and whichever of those entries Mick Fitzgerald and Ruby Walsh choose are bound to go off significantly shorter than their stablemate or mates, even though there may not be much between them on the formbook.
The two jockeys have some unenviable choices to make and, as a punter, their choices could lead to their being some real value elsewhere.
To emphasis the point, Nicky Henderson unleashed another potential star on Friday (15th February) when Punchestowns won in impressive fashion on his hurdling debut at Sandown.
However, anyone who has closely followed Martin Pipe’s runners at the Festival, particularly in handicap chases, will know that it isn’t always a stable’s apparent first string that wins the day.
It is highly likely that Henderson and Nicholls will have more than one runner in each of the big novice hurdles and whichever of those entries Mick Fitzgerald and Ruby Walsh choose are bound to go off significantly shorter than their stablemate or mates, even though there may not be much between them on the formbook.
The two jockeys have some unenviable choices to make and, as a punter, their choices could lead to their being some real value elsewhere.
Clues Aplenty In England and Ireland
Whilst The Listener’s high profile success at Leopardstown dominated the headlines on Sunday (10th February), there were some other performances of note on the same day in both Ireland and England.
J’y Vole ran a remarkable race to win the valuable Dr P J Moriarty Novice Chase at Leopardstown. Everything seemed to conspire against Willie Mullins’ mare, including the fact that she jumped markedly right throughout. She was headed, and looked beaten, entering the straight, but staged a remarkable rally to lead at the last and win quite comfortably in the end.
She is clearly hugely talented, but may be without a trip at the Festival. The Arkle may not be far enough for her and she is unlikely to be able to sustain her front running tactics over the three miles plus distance of the Sun Alliance. If she continues to jump right handed as well, then she’ll struggle round Cheltenham’s left handed track.
There seemed to be no excuses for those in behind, including Sky’s The Limit and Thyne Again.
The Deloitte Hurdle was the other being race on the Leopardstown card and whilst Forpadydeplasterer was a worthy winner, the performances of the second and third were both worthy of note for differing reasons.
Cork All Star, last year’s Festival Bumper winner was disappointing in second. He has been beaten in his last couple of starts over hurdles and will need to improve significantly if he is to win at Cheltenham for a second successive year. Better ground and a faster pace may well bring out some of that improvement.
Tranquil Sea, by contrast, ran a race full of promise in third. His trainer, Edward O’Grady, has an excellent record at the Festival and this horse looks to be going the right way fast and will definitely improve when he encounters a quicker surface. He has the choice of either the Supreme Novices Hurdle or the Ballymore Properties Hurdle.
The same is true of Group Captain, who was the most significant winner in England on Sunday. The former decent Flat performer has made a very successful transition to hurdles and his victory at Exeter was very impressive, visually. He had some decent horses behind him and showed a really classy turn of foot to put the race beyond doubt between the last two flights. His Flat speed will be a dangerous weapon at the Festival.
J’y Vole ran a remarkable race to win the valuable Dr P J Moriarty Novice Chase at Leopardstown. Everything seemed to conspire against Willie Mullins’ mare, including the fact that she jumped markedly right throughout. She was headed, and looked beaten, entering the straight, but staged a remarkable rally to lead at the last and win quite comfortably in the end.
She is clearly hugely talented, but may be without a trip at the Festival. The Arkle may not be far enough for her and she is unlikely to be able to sustain her front running tactics over the three miles plus distance of the Sun Alliance. If she continues to jump right handed as well, then she’ll struggle round Cheltenham’s left handed track.
There seemed to be no excuses for those in behind, including Sky’s The Limit and Thyne Again.
The Deloitte Hurdle was the other being race on the Leopardstown card and whilst Forpadydeplasterer was a worthy winner, the performances of the second and third were both worthy of note for differing reasons.
Cork All Star, last year’s Festival Bumper winner was disappointing in second. He has been beaten in his last couple of starts over hurdles and will need to improve significantly if he is to win at Cheltenham for a second successive year. Better ground and a faster pace may well bring out some of that improvement.
Tranquil Sea, by contrast, ran a race full of promise in third. His trainer, Edward O’Grady, has an excellent record at the Festival and this horse looks to be going the right way fast and will definitely improve when he encounters a quicker surface. He has the choice of either the Supreme Novices Hurdle or the Ballymore Properties Hurdle.
The same is true of Group Captain, who was the most significant winner in England on Sunday. The former decent Flat performer has made a very successful transition to hurdles and his victory at Exeter was very impressive, visually. He had some decent horses behind him and showed a really classy turn of foot to put the race beyond doubt between the last two flights. His Flat speed will be a dangerous weapon at the Festival.
Wednesday, 13 February 2008
Kauto or Denman? Our opinion
We’d been firmly in the Kauto camp before the weekend, but you couldn’t help but be mightily impressed with Denman on Saturday and we are certainly in for a treat on 14th March, provided both horses make it to the start in one piece.
Interestingly, the trend in recent seasons has been for Gold Cup winners to posses speed, rather than stamina.
The race was originally created as a Grand National trial, and the successes in the 1990s for horses like Cool Ground, Cool Dawn and Master Oats showed that galloping, staying types were needed to win the race, and the Sun Alliance Chase (over three miles plus) seemed a better stepping stone for novices with Gold Cup aspirations.
However, things have changed dramatically in recent years (possibly coinciding with the new drainage system at Cheltenham, which seems to ensure decent ground), with the Arkle and other top novice chases over two miles supplying more Gold Cup winners. In fact, Looks Like Trouble, in 2000, was the last Sun Alliance Chase winner to go on and win the Gold Cup, whereas Kicking King, War of Attrition and Kauto Star himself all ran in their season’s Arkle (as would Best Mate have done had it not been for foot and mouth).
If speed is still the decisive factor, then Kauto Star should win again. However, Denman doesn’t appear to be the stereotypical, staying galloper. He seems able to set gut wrenching fractions throughout his races, that simply rip the heart out of his opponents.
Kauto Star was nicknamed the Extraterrestrial by his connections in France, before he was sold to race in England, and he’ll need to put up a performance out of this world to beat Denman if they are both at their best on Gold Cup day. However, we believe that he is ready to live up to that nickname and do just that.
Kauto hasn’t always received due credit for his amazing record over fences to date, but if he is able to secure back to back Gold Cup victories then we may, at last, have found a true rival to Arkle.
Click here to claim a free £25 Gold Cup bet with Ladbrokes
Interestingly, the trend in recent seasons has been for Gold Cup winners to posses speed, rather than stamina.
The race was originally created as a Grand National trial, and the successes in the 1990s for horses like Cool Ground, Cool Dawn and Master Oats showed that galloping, staying types were needed to win the race, and the Sun Alliance Chase (over three miles plus) seemed a better stepping stone for novices with Gold Cup aspirations.
However, things have changed dramatically in recent years (possibly coinciding with the new drainage system at Cheltenham, which seems to ensure decent ground), with the Arkle and other top novice chases over two miles supplying more Gold Cup winners. In fact, Looks Like Trouble, in 2000, was the last Sun Alliance Chase winner to go on and win the Gold Cup, whereas Kicking King, War of Attrition and Kauto Star himself all ran in their season’s Arkle (as would Best Mate have done had it not been for foot and mouth).
If speed is still the decisive factor, then Kauto Star should win again. However, Denman doesn’t appear to be the stereotypical, staying galloper. He seems able to set gut wrenching fractions throughout his races, that simply rip the heart out of his opponents.
Kauto Star was nicknamed the Extraterrestrial by his connections in France, before he was sold to race in England, and he’ll need to put up a performance out of this world to beat Denman if they are both at their best on Gold Cup day. However, we believe that he is ready to live up to that nickname and do just that.
Kauto hasn’t always received due credit for his amazing record over fences to date, but if he is able to secure back to back Gold Cup victories then we may, at last, have found a true rival to Arkle.
Click here to claim a free £25 Gold Cup bet with Ladbrokes
Omens Good For Denman
A host of big races in Ireland at Leopardstown on Sunday (10 February), including the prestigious Hennessy Cognac Gold Cup.
However, it wasn’t so much the performances of the participants in that race that grabbed the headlines, but more the boost the winner, The Listener, gave to Saturday’s hero, Denman.
The Listener was comprehensively beaten by Denman when the two met in Ireland over Christmas and so the success of Robert Alner’s gelding here further underlined the danger that Denman presents to reigning champion, Kauto Star.
The Listener was a comfortable winner here, leading throughout and quickening up well when challenged turning for home. His jockey, Daryl Jacob, didn’t think the horse stayed the Gold Cup trip at last year’s Festival so it is hard to see him being able to mix it with the Paul Nicholls’ pair at Cheltenham this year. Connections seem to be of the same mind, and look likely to aim The Listener at the Ryanair Chase instead. The question is, though, will he have enough speed for that race, if we get decent ground.
Of those in behind The Listener, Snowy Morning ran a race full of promise, staying on well to finish third after never really being put into the race by Ruby Walsh until after the winner had flown. He looks likely to bypass Cheltenham for a crack at the Grand National, which is a shame as he is likely to improve again in the spring and could easily sneak a place in the Gold Cup if allowed to line up there, as the race is likely to be set up for him.
Nickname was very disappointing back in sixth. He was beaten too far out for stamina to have been an issue and he confirmed our suspicions that he doesn’t seem in anything like as good a form this season as he was last. The worry for Kicking King’s fans is that the form of his comeback race, that looked so promising at the time, has now taken two major knocks, with both Newmill and Nickname struggling to uphold the form on their next starts.
Amazingly, it wasn’t just at Leopardstown that Denman’s Gold Cup hopes were further enhanced on Sunday, as Dream Alliance also gave his form a timely boost at Exeter.
Dream Alliance chased Denman home in the Hennessy at Newbury earlier this season, and would have won the big race at the Devon track had he not fallen two out with the race at his mercy.
However, it wasn’t so much the performances of the participants in that race that grabbed the headlines, but more the boost the winner, The Listener, gave to Saturday’s hero, Denman.
The Listener was comprehensively beaten by Denman when the two met in Ireland over Christmas and so the success of Robert Alner’s gelding here further underlined the danger that Denman presents to reigning champion, Kauto Star.
The Listener was a comfortable winner here, leading throughout and quickening up well when challenged turning for home. His jockey, Daryl Jacob, didn’t think the horse stayed the Gold Cup trip at last year’s Festival so it is hard to see him being able to mix it with the Paul Nicholls’ pair at Cheltenham this year. Connections seem to be of the same mind, and look likely to aim The Listener at the Ryanair Chase instead. The question is, though, will he have enough speed for that race, if we get decent ground.
Of those in behind The Listener, Snowy Morning ran a race full of promise, staying on well to finish third after never really being put into the race by Ruby Walsh until after the winner had flown. He looks likely to bypass Cheltenham for a crack at the Grand National, which is a shame as he is likely to improve again in the spring and could easily sneak a place in the Gold Cup if allowed to line up there, as the race is likely to be set up for him.
Nickname was very disappointing back in sixth. He was beaten too far out for stamina to have been an issue and he confirmed our suspicions that he doesn’t seem in anything like as good a form this season as he was last. The worry for Kicking King’s fans is that the form of his comeback race, that looked so promising at the time, has now taken two major knocks, with both Newmill and Nickname struggling to uphold the form on their next starts.
Amazingly, it wasn’t just at Leopardstown that Denman’s Gold Cup hopes were further enhanced on Sunday, as Dream Alliance also gave his form a timely boost at Exeter.
Dream Alliance chased Denman home in the Hennessy at Newbury earlier this season, and would have won the big race at the Devon track had he not fallen two out with the race at his mercy.
Tuesday, 12 February 2008
More Weekend clues
It wasn’t all about the brilliant Denman and Master Minded on Saturday (9 February) as there were plenty of other Festival clues around, and here’s our summary of the best and worst trials run on the rest of Newbury’s card and at Warwick:
Itsa Legend stayed on well in the totescoop6 Handicap Hurdle at Newbury and could be an interesting contender for the Coral Cup.
Missis Potts also stayed on well in the totesport Trophy, after receiving reminders as early as the second flight. Again, one of the staying hurdles at the Festival should suit Phillip Hobb’s seven year old who, with Strong Gale influence in his pedigree, should be suited by even better ground.
The Old Pretender was well beaten in the concluding bumper at Newbury to suggest that he has no chance in the equivalent race at Cheltenham. The winner of the Newbury contest, Mad Max is likely to bypass the Festival.
Moon Over Miami was the biggest disappointment at Warwick. He was pulled up in the Kingmaker Novices Chase to leave his Arkle hopes in tatters. Charlie Mann’s seven year old apparently boiled over when the start was delayed and bled during the race. Kruguyrova (1st) and Ring The Boss (2nd) both enhanced their reputations in the same race. Big Bucks, in third, also ran well on a course that probably wouldn’t suit him as well as Cheltenham.
Bagan took the big handicap chase on Warwick’s card in good style, to set up a possible crack at the Jewson.
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Itsa Legend stayed on well in the totescoop6 Handicap Hurdle at Newbury and could be an interesting contender for the Coral Cup.
Missis Potts also stayed on well in the totesport Trophy, after receiving reminders as early as the second flight. Again, one of the staying hurdles at the Festival should suit Phillip Hobb’s seven year old who, with Strong Gale influence in his pedigree, should be suited by even better ground.
The Old Pretender was well beaten in the concluding bumper at Newbury to suggest that he has no chance in the equivalent race at Cheltenham. The winner of the Newbury contest, Mad Max is likely to bypass the Festival.
Moon Over Miami was the biggest disappointment at Warwick. He was pulled up in the Kingmaker Novices Chase to leave his Arkle hopes in tatters. Charlie Mann’s seven year old apparently boiled over when the start was delayed and bled during the race. Kruguyrova (1st) and Ring The Boss (2nd) both enhanced their reputations in the same race. Big Bucks, in third, also ran well on a course that probably wouldn’t suit him as well as Cheltenham.
Bagan took the big handicap chase on Warwick’s card in good style, to set up a possible crack at the Jewson.
Click here to claim an exclusive £25 free bet with Ladbrokes
Monday, 11 February 2008
Nicholls on song
Another red letter day at Newbury on Saturday (9 February) for Paul Nicholls’ powerful stable, as two performances from his horses stood out on another significant day of pre Festival action.
First up was Master Minded’s victory over reigning Champion Chaser, Voy Por Ustedes. We hope you took our hint about this horse in the previous Blog entry ("Look out for Denman’s stablemate, Master Minded, in the Game Spirit. If he runs well his current price of 16/1 for the Queen Mother could look huge") as the Clive Smith owned five year old was a most impressive winner of the Game Spirit and is now 5/2 favourite with Ladbrokes for the big race on day two of the Festival.
Supporters of Voy Por Ustedes will undoubtedly point to the fact that he would be far better suited by a faster pace than he got at Newbury and that his conqueror here had the run of the race. In addition, he was giving the winner six pounds.
However, Master Minded would also have preferred a lead, but instead had to win the race the hard way – from the front. He also won surprisingly easily and the result was never in doubt from the minute he shook off Voy Por Ustedes’ initial challenge turning for home.
He looked like he would have won even if he hadn’t enjoyed the weight concession and his jumping was a joy to behold for such a young horse. He may get caught out for lack of experience at Cheltenham, but it is interesting that his trainer has compared him to his stable’s former star, Azertyuiop, and that Ruby Walsh appears inclined to ride him in the Champion Chase, rather than Twist Magic.
Just over half an hour later Denman put on another awesome display of power to gallop his rivals into the ground in the AON Chase, to ensure that the dream clash with Kauto Star in the Gold Cup remains firmly on the cards.
A mistake five out was the only blemish on an otherwise faultless performance, and that error may actually have done Denman good – he seems to find everything he does so easy that the mistake should have helped to focus his mind on the job.
It is difficult to be overly enthusiastic about the quality of the horses he beat, but perennial front runner, Ollie Magern, dared to mix it with Denman from the off, and he paid the price in dramatic fashion, fading in the straight to finish a legless last.
The horse is all about power, and while his running style will undoubtedly set up the Gold Cup for Kauto Star under Ruby Walsh’s stalking tactics, the key will be whether or not the current Champion will have enough reserves of stamina to get past his stable mate in the gruelling run to the line.
First up was Master Minded’s victory over reigning Champion Chaser, Voy Por Ustedes. We hope you took our hint about this horse in the previous Blog entry ("Look out for Denman’s stablemate, Master Minded, in the Game Spirit. If he runs well his current price of 16/1 for the Queen Mother could look huge") as the Clive Smith owned five year old was a most impressive winner of the Game Spirit and is now 5/2 favourite with Ladbrokes for the big race on day two of the Festival.
Supporters of Voy Por Ustedes will undoubtedly point to the fact that he would be far better suited by a faster pace than he got at Newbury and that his conqueror here had the run of the race. In addition, he was giving the winner six pounds.
However, Master Minded would also have preferred a lead, but instead had to win the race the hard way – from the front. He also won surprisingly easily and the result was never in doubt from the minute he shook off Voy Por Ustedes’ initial challenge turning for home.
He looked like he would have won even if he hadn’t enjoyed the weight concession and his jumping was a joy to behold for such a young horse. He may get caught out for lack of experience at Cheltenham, but it is interesting that his trainer has compared him to his stable’s former star, Azertyuiop, and that Ruby Walsh appears inclined to ride him in the Champion Chase, rather than Twist Magic.
Just over half an hour later Denman put on another awesome display of power to gallop his rivals into the ground in the AON Chase, to ensure that the dream clash with Kauto Star in the Gold Cup remains firmly on the cards.
A mistake five out was the only blemish on an otherwise faultless performance, and that error may actually have done Denman good – he seems to find everything he does so easy that the mistake should have helped to focus his mind on the job.
It is difficult to be overly enthusiastic about the quality of the horses he beat, but perennial front runner, Ollie Magern, dared to mix it with Denman from the off, and he paid the price in dramatic fashion, fading in the straight to finish a legless last.
The horse is all about power, and while his running style will undoubtedly set up the Gold Cup for Kauto Star under Ruby Walsh’s stalking tactics, the key will be whether or not the current Champion will have enough reserves of stamina to get past his stable mate in the gruelling run to the line.
Friday, 8 February 2008
Festival trials this weekend
Another huge weekend of Festival trials.
Newbury hosts its biggest National Hunt meeting of the season tomorrow (Saturday 9 February) and some of the stars on its cast list include Denman and Voy Por Ustedes, who complete their preparations for the Gold Cup and Champion Chase respectively in the AON Chase and the Game Spirit.
Look out for Denman’s stablemate, Master Minded, in the Game Spirit. If he runs well his current price of 16/1 for the Queen Mother could look huge.
The Totesport Trophy is also run at the Berkshire track tomorrow and it is likely to throw up plenty of clues for the County Hurdle. Blue Bajan is also well fancied for the Supreme Novices Hurdle and even holds a Champion Hurdle entry, so expect a good run tomorrow.
Finally, the current shortest priced English trained runner for the Festival Bumper, The Old Pretender, puts his Cheltenham credentials to the test in the final race on Newbury’s top quality card.
Warwick also stages some decent events tomorrow, with Moon Over Miami, one of the leading attractions. He is well fancied for the Arkle, a race we’ll look at in more detail on the Blog next week.
On Sunday, Leopardstown stages a whole a host of Festival trials, with the Hennessy Cognac Gold Cup taking centre stage. It features a fascinating clash between The Listener, Snowy Morning, Nickname and Beef Or Salmon (to name but four).
However, don’t miss the Deloitte Hurdle or the Dr P J Moriarty Chase earlier on the card. J’y Vole is a really exciting prospect and could enhance her reputation further in the latter race, whilst last year’s Festival bumper winner, Cork All Star, clashes with other Festival fancies Forpadydeplasterer and Whatuthink in the former contest.
If you needed any evidence that our reviews of last year’s races at the Festival are worth reading, then here’s a pertinent quote that was posted by us on the site last year when we reviewed the Triumph Hurdle:
“J’y Vole was another who could be spotted travelling smoothly for much of the race. She only ran twice on the Flat and this was her first start over hurdles on anything other than very soft ground. It didn’t seem to inconvenience her and she is certainly worth keeping an eye on.”
Stick with us and you won't go far wrong at the Cheltenham Festival. And unlike other tipping / race advisory services...we don't charge a penny!
Newbury hosts its biggest National Hunt meeting of the season tomorrow (Saturday 9 February) and some of the stars on its cast list include Denman and Voy Por Ustedes, who complete their preparations for the Gold Cup and Champion Chase respectively in the AON Chase and the Game Spirit.
Look out for Denman’s stablemate, Master Minded, in the Game Spirit. If he runs well his current price of 16/1 for the Queen Mother could look huge.
The Totesport Trophy is also run at the Berkshire track tomorrow and it is likely to throw up plenty of clues for the County Hurdle. Blue Bajan is also well fancied for the Supreme Novices Hurdle and even holds a Champion Hurdle entry, so expect a good run tomorrow.
Finally, the current shortest priced English trained runner for the Festival Bumper, The Old Pretender, puts his Cheltenham credentials to the test in the final race on Newbury’s top quality card.
Warwick also stages some decent events tomorrow, with Moon Over Miami, one of the leading attractions. He is well fancied for the Arkle, a race we’ll look at in more detail on the Blog next week.
On Sunday, Leopardstown stages a whole a host of Festival trials, with the Hennessy Cognac Gold Cup taking centre stage. It features a fascinating clash between The Listener, Snowy Morning, Nickname and Beef Or Salmon (to name but four).
However, don’t miss the Deloitte Hurdle or the Dr P J Moriarty Chase earlier on the card. J’y Vole is a really exciting prospect and could enhance her reputation further in the latter race, whilst last year’s Festival bumper winner, Cork All Star, clashes with other Festival fancies Forpadydeplasterer and Whatuthink in the former contest.
If you needed any evidence that our reviews of last year’s races at the Festival are worth reading, then here’s a pertinent quote that was posted by us on the site last year when we reviewed the Triumph Hurdle:
“J’y Vole was another who could be spotted travelling smoothly for much of the race. She only ran twice on the Flat and this was her first start over hurdles on anything other than very soft ground. It didn’t seem to inconvenience her and she is certainly worth keeping an eye on.”
Stick with us and you won't go far wrong at the Cheltenham Festival. And unlike other tipping / race advisory services...we don't charge a penny!
Psychic Insight
Derren Brown’s recent attempt to bring his supposed psychic powers to bear on the sport of horse racing was high on hype but disappointingly low on substance.
However, the Festival blog is able to read at least one person’s mind as, in line with our prediction, Pricewise nominated Special Envoy as his best ante post bet for the World Hurdle.
Here are a few pointers to look out for when trying to pick the winner of the Ladbrokes sponsored highlight of day 3:
* In the last 15 years, the previous year’s champion (currently Inglis Drever) has only returned twice and in doing so has finished first and second.
* No five year old has ever won (a negative for Gaspara).
* The record of the current Long Walk Hurdle winner (Lough Derg) is 059162212.
* In recent seasons, four winners contested that season’s Long Walk Hurdle, where their finishing positions were 7121.
* Ten of the last ten winners were between 6 and 8 years old, and had had between 6 and 16 career starts over hurdles.
* Nine out of the last ten winners had not been out of the first four all season, and had had no more than 4 runs.
* Eight out of the last ten winners had finished first or second last time out.
* Seven out of the last ten winners had won or been placed at the Festival before.
* No horse has ever won the race three times.
* Crimson Embers is the only horse older than 9 ever to win the race.
If you follow the trends, the first four home in this year’s World Hurdle may look something like this:
1st Wichita Lineman
2nd Blazing Bailey
3rd Inglis Drever
4th Hardy Eustace
To win a pair of Club Enclosure tickets to see this race at the Festival click here.
However, the Festival blog is able to read at least one person’s mind as, in line with our prediction, Pricewise nominated Special Envoy as his best ante post bet for the World Hurdle.
Here are a few pointers to look out for when trying to pick the winner of the Ladbrokes sponsored highlight of day 3:
* In the last 15 years, the previous year’s champion (currently Inglis Drever) has only returned twice and in doing so has finished first and second.
* No five year old has ever won (a negative for Gaspara).
* The record of the current Long Walk Hurdle winner (Lough Derg) is 059162212.
* In recent seasons, four winners contested that season’s Long Walk Hurdle, where their finishing positions were 7121.
* Ten of the last ten winners were between 6 and 8 years old, and had had between 6 and 16 career starts over hurdles.
* Nine out of the last ten winners had not been out of the first four all season, and had had no more than 4 runs.
* Eight out of the last ten winners had finished first or second last time out.
* Seven out of the last ten winners had won or been placed at the Festival before.
* No horse has ever won the race three times.
* Crimson Embers is the only horse older than 9 ever to win the race.
If you follow the trends, the first four home in this year’s World Hurdle may look something like this:
1st Wichita Lineman
2nd Blazing Bailey
3rd Inglis Drever
4th Hardy Eustace
To win a pair of Club Enclosure tickets to see this race at the Festival click here.
Wednesday, 6 February 2008
Sunday assessment
After a very informative day on Saturday, there weren't many Festival clues around in England, Scotland or Ireland on Sunday (3 February).
All the leading contenders for the big races at Punchestown got turned over, albeit that some could be forgiven poor runs on the extremely testing ground.
The most notable casualty was Newmill, whose disappointing effort in the Tied Cottage Chase cast doubt over the form of Kicking King's recent comeback race.
Newmill remains on target for the Champion Chase but, although he has always needed much better ground than this to be at his best, it was worrying to see how soon he was off the bridle. Being brought down two out is unlikely to have helped his confidence either.
The other race of particular interest at Punchestown was that run over its famous banks course as it provided an excellent trial for the Cross Country Chase at the Festival. In fact, the winner of that race at Cheltenham last season, Heads Onthe Ground, finished second here, under the welter burden of 12 stone. He was giving ten pounds to the winner, Garde Champetre.
The first two home are both trained by Edna Bolger who has farmed so many of these races in recent years, and they are likely to be in the thick of the action at the Festival too. The runner up is fancied to reverse the form on revised terms and better ground in March.
The most significant performance in England was probably that of Thisthatandtother who shot to the head of the market for the Foxhunters Chase at the Festival with a win on his seasonal and hunter chase debut. The quote of 7/2 for that race looks plenty short enough, however. Although Paul Nicholl's gelding has more class than many horses who run in this sphere, he is now 12 (and so is unlikely to be improving), has had breathing problems in the recent past, has yet to prove he stays the trip of the Foxhunters and beat little or nothing of any note here. He may turn out to be one of the favourites to lay at the Cheltenham.
All the leading contenders for the big races at Punchestown got turned over, albeit that some could be forgiven poor runs on the extremely testing ground.
The most notable casualty was Newmill, whose disappointing effort in the Tied Cottage Chase cast doubt over the form of Kicking King's recent comeback race.
Newmill remains on target for the Champion Chase but, although he has always needed much better ground than this to be at his best, it was worrying to see how soon he was off the bridle. Being brought down two out is unlikely to have helped his confidence either.
The other race of particular interest at Punchestown was that run over its famous banks course as it provided an excellent trial for the Cross Country Chase at the Festival. In fact, the winner of that race at Cheltenham last season, Heads Onthe Ground, finished second here, under the welter burden of 12 stone. He was giving ten pounds to the winner, Garde Champetre.
The first two home are both trained by Edna Bolger who has farmed so many of these races in recent years, and they are likely to be in the thick of the action at the Festival too. The runner up is fancied to reverse the form on revised terms and better ground in March.
The most significant performance in England was probably that of Thisthatandtother who shot to the head of the market for the Foxhunters Chase at the Festival with a win on his seasonal and hunter chase debut. The quote of 7/2 for that race looks plenty short enough, however. Although Paul Nicholl's gelding has more class than many horses who run in this sphere, he is now 12 (and so is unlikely to be improving), has had breathing problems in the recent past, has yet to prove he stays the trip of the Foxhunters and beat little or nothing of any note here. He may turn out to be one of the favourites to lay at the Cheltenham.
Monday, 4 February 2008
World Hurdle thoughts
Pricewise reveals his ante post picks for the Ladbrokes World Hurdle tomorrow and having agreed with our choices for the Gold Cup and Champion Chase, we thought we’d better publicise our selections before he does.
Certainly Inglis Drever looks a worthy favourite, but he doesn’t represent any value at this stage and so the ones to focus on are Wichita Lineman, and outsiders Ringaroses, The Market Man and Special Envoy.
If Jonjo O’Neill’s horses are in better form at the Festival than they are now then Wichita Lineman should certainly give Inglis Drever plenty to think about. He has a similar running style to the current favourite and all he does his stay. You can, therefore, forget his runs so far this season as they have all been over an inadequate trip.
Special Envoy is unlucky not to have won two big handicap hurdles over the past 12 months having fallen at the last with both races at his mercy. He’s improving fast and could close the gap with his more fancied rivals on better ground.
Ringaroses has been brought along very slowly by Henrietta Knight, but ran a race full of promise on his return to action on Saturday. There is a doubt over his Festival target, but he’d be a fascinating addition to the World Hurdle field. He’d be a lot shorter price if he was a guaranteed starter.
The Market Man ran over fences at the weekend after a long lay off. However, following that race connections highlighted this race as his likely Cheltenham target. Nicky Henderson won the World Hurdle with a similar sort, Bacchanal, in 2000. To underline his quality, The Market Man was beaten only a neck into second by Mighty Man when last seen out over hurdles in 2005.
Certainly Inglis Drever looks a worthy favourite, but he doesn’t represent any value at this stage and so the ones to focus on are Wichita Lineman, and outsiders Ringaroses, The Market Man and Special Envoy.
If Jonjo O’Neill’s horses are in better form at the Festival than they are now then Wichita Lineman should certainly give Inglis Drever plenty to think about. He has a similar running style to the current favourite and all he does his stay. You can, therefore, forget his runs so far this season as they have all been over an inadequate trip.
Special Envoy is unlucky not to have won two big handicap hurdles over the past 12 months having fallen at the last with both races at his mercy. He’s improving fast and could close the gap with his more fancied rivals on better ground.
Ringaroses has been brought along very slowly by Henrietta Knight, but ran a race full of promise on his return to action on Saturday. There is a doubt over his Festival target, but he’d be a fascinating addition to the World Hurdle field. He’d be a lot shorter price if he was a guaranteed starter.
The Market Man ran over fences at the weekend after a long lay off. However, following that race connections highlighted this race as his likely Cheltenham target. Nicky Henderson won the World Hurdle with a similar sort, Bacchanal, in 2000. To underline his quality, The Market Man was beaten only a neck into second by Mighty Man when last seen out over hurdles in 2005.
Sunday, 3 February 2008
Win World Hurdle Day tickets
We have been given a pair of fantastic Club Enclosure tickets to Ladbrokes World Hurdle Day (Thursday 13th March) at this year's Cheltenham Festival by the race sponsor Ladbrokes. The Club enclosure is Cheltenham’s most exclusive enclosure with the best viewing and refreshment outlets - the tickets are worth £65 each.
To enter a prize draw for these tickets, simply open an account with Ladbrokes by clicking here and then email your new Ladbrokes account username (not password) to us at: info@bookmakers.tv before midnight on Sunday 9th March.
Entry to this draw is free and anyone opening a new account with Ladbrokes via this link will be eligible for a free £25 bet. Winner will be notified by email on Monday 10th March.
Click here for Terms and Conditions
To enter a prize draw for these tickets, simply open an account with Ladbrokes by clicking here and then email your new Ladbrokes account username (not password) to us at: info@bookmakers.tv before midnight on Sunday 9th March.
Entry to this draw is free and anyone opening a new account with Ladbrokes via this link will be eligible for a free £25 bet. Winner will be notified by email on Monday 10th March.
Click here for Terms and Conditions
Festival clues
Festival clues aplenty at both Doncaster and Sandown yesterday (2nd February), with some reputations damaged whilst others were enhanced. Here are a few of the positives, negatives and question marks:
Positives:
* Last year’s Champion Hurdle third, Afsoun, put himself back in the picture for this year’s renewal with a battling success in the totesport Contenders Hurdle at Sandown. He has been beaten by plenty of other Champion Hurdle contenders this season, so he may not be good enough to actually win the highlight of day one of the Festival. However, the inevitable fast pace and the stiff Cheltenham track will play to his strengths and he could easily stay on in the closing stages to claim a place, just like last season.
* Rippling Ring and Sentry Duty won the two divisions of the novices hurdle at Doncaster in good style and could clash in the Supreme Novices Hurdle. The important thing to note is that the ground at the Yorkshire track was pretty decent and could be very similar to that we get at the Festival in a few weeks time. Both were high class performers on the Flat, but the time of Sentry Duty’s division was slightly quicker.
* Celestial Halo may have been beaten into second by Sentry Duty, but that may prove in time to be no disgrace and he was well clear of the third. He and Binocular still look like the two biggest threats to Franchoek in the Triumph Hurdle.
* Ringaroses stayed on in eye catching style to take second place on the line in the big handicap hurdle at Doncaster. This horse has always been held in high regard by Henrietta Knight and he is a must for the shortlist of whichever race he turns up for at the Festival. The Coral Cup looks an obvious target, although he may not be out of his depth in the World Hurdle.
* Two horses who weren’t involved in the finish of their respective contests but who look worth keeping an eye on in the future are Grand Schlem and My Immortal. Both stayed on nicely at the end of their races to suggest there might be better to come in the coming weeks. The former may go for something like the Fred Winter at the Festival, whilst there is no end of handicaps My Immortal could be aimed at by his powerful yard.
Negatives:
* There appeared to be no excuses for Straw Bear behind Afsoun at Sandown. He looks to be just below top class, although quicker ground than he encountered here may see him in a better light.
* Despite winning the big novice chase at Sandown, Silverburn’s performance still asked more questions than it answered. He looks quirky and also doesn’t have an obvious Festival target – he seems to struggle to stay the three miles of the Sun Alliance Chase and isn’t quick enough for the Arkle. He could be one to take on at short prices in the future.
* Kalahari King was the big disappointment in Rippling Ring’s division of the novice hurdle at Doncaster. On this evidence he has no chance at Cheltenham.
Question Marks
* The well regarded Ashkazar got his season back on track with a convincing win in the opener at Sandown. He led for most of the way and quickened clear when challenged going to the last. After a hugely impressive debut success over hurdles, the David Pipe four year old had disappointed slightly behind Franchoek last time out, but this was much more like it and he is now 16/1 for the Triumph. However, he may need soft ground to be at his best and his owner isn’t reportedly keen on running him in that race.
* Don’t despair if you took our advice and got on Andreas each way at a big price for the Queen Mother. On the face of it his performance in the valuable Williamhill Handicap Chase at Doncaster was disappointing. However, he suffered a serious injury at Aintree when last seen out and clearly needed the run here. He travelled well for a long way and got tired after clouting the fourth last. He’ll come on a bundle for the run and we just need to hope Paul Nicholls lets him take his chance in the big race.
* Tidal Bay was turned over at long odds on in the novice chase at Doncaster, but the defeat wasn’t as disappointing as it looked. He made two terrible jumping errors, with the one at the last clearly costing him the race. The way he got back into the race after making an awful mistake six out was actually very impressive and I think the effort showed that he does have enough speed for the Arkle. If he jumps better at Cheltenham he could be hard to beat, as he clearly has some engine and no end of natural talent.
Positives:
* Last year’s Champion Hurdle third, Afsoun, put himself back in the picture for this year’s renewal with a battling success in the totesport Contenders Hurdle at Sandown. He has been beaten by plenty of other Champion Hurdle contenders this season, so he may not be good enough to actually win the highlight of day one of the Festival. However, the inevitable fast pace and the stiff Cheltenham track will play to his strengths and he could easily stay on in the closing stages to claim a place, just like last season.
* Rippling Ring and Sentry Duty won the two divisions of the novices hurdle at Doncaster in good style and could clash in the Supreme Novices Hurdle. The important thing to note is that the ground at the Yorkshire track was pretty decent and could be very similar to that we get at the Festival in a few weeks time. Both were high class performers on the Flat, but the time of Sentry Duty’s division was slightly quicker.
* Celestial Halo may have been beaten into second by Sentry Duty, but that may prove in time to be no disgrace and he was well clear of the third. He and Binocular still look like the two biggest threats to Franchoek in the Triumph Hurdle.
* Ringaroses stayed on in eye catching style to take second place on the line in the big handicap hurdle at Doncaster. This horse has always been held in high regard by Henrietta Knight and he is a must for the shortlist of whichever race he turns up for at the Festival. The Coral Cup looks an obvious target, although he may not be out of his depth in the World Hurdle.
* Two horses who weren’t involved in the finish of their respective contests but who look worth keeping an eye on in the future are Grand Schlem and My Immortal. Both stayed on nicely at the end of their races to suggest there might be better to come in the coming weeks. The former may go for something like the Fred Winter at the Festival, whilst there is no end of handicaps My Immortal could be aimed at by his powerful yard.
Negatives:
* There appeared to be no excuses for Straw Bear behind Afsoun at Sandown. He looks to be just below top class, although quicker ground than he encountered here may see him in a better light.
* Despite winning the big novice chase at Sandown, Silverburn’s performance still asked more questions than it answered. He looks quirky and also doesn’t have an obvious Festival target – he seems to struggle to stay the three miles of the Sun Alliance Chase and isn’t quick enough for the Arkle. He could be one to take on at short prices in the future.
* Kalahari King was the big disappointment in Rippling Ring’s division of the novice hurdle at Doncaster. On this evidence he has no chance at Cheltenham.
Question Marks
* The well regarded Ashkazar got his season back on track with a convincing win in the opener at Sandown. He led for most of the way and quickened clear when challenged going to the last. After a hugely impressive debut success over hurdles, the David Pipe four year old had disappointed slightly behind Franchoek last time out, but this was much more like it and he is now 16/1 for the Triumph. However, he may need soft ground to be at his best and his owner isn’t reportedly keen on running him in that race.
* Don’t despair if you took our advice and got on Andreas each way at a big price for the Queen Mother. On the face of it his performance in the valuable Williamhill Handicap Chase at Doncaster was disappointing. However, he suffered a serious injury at Aintree when last seen out and clearly needed the run here. He travelled well for a long way and got tired after clouting the fourth last. He’ll come on a bundle for the run and we just need to hope Paul Nicholls lets him take his chance in the big race.
* Tidal Bay was turned over at long odds on in the novice chase at Doncaster, but the defeat wasn’t as disappointing as it looked. He made two terrible jumping errors, with the one at the last clearly costing him the race. The way he got back into the race after making an awful mistake six out was actually very impressive and I think the effort showed that he does have enough speed for the Arkle. If he jumps better at Cheltenham he could be hard to beat, as he clearly has some engine and no end of natural talent.
Friday, 1 February 2008
Price Wiser?
He’s at it again!
Only days after we’d nominated Andreas as the best each way, ante post bet in this year’s Queen Mother Champion Chase, legendary Racing Post tipster, Pricewise, recommended exactly the same horse as the form choice in his weekly column.
We hope you got on early and took the 50/1 that was widely available when we nominated Paul Nicholls’ gelding as the one to be on, as the best price now is 33/1 (with Ladbrokes) and he is as low as 25/1 with many other bookies.
If you prefer trends to form, here are a few pointers to look out for when trying to pick this year’s winner:
* The record of the returning champion in the race (Voy Por Ustedes) is 445U35.
* The record of the previous year’s Arkle winner (My Way De Solzen) is 231121.
* The record of the current Tinkle Creek winner (Twist Magic) is 633131U1F.
* The record of the current Game Spirit winner (to be run later this month) is 2653713F.
* Six of the last seven winners had run in that season’s Tingle Creek.
* The last ten winners had all won over at least 2m 1½f. Twist Magic hasn’t.
* Nine out of the last ten winners had had at least 8 previous runs over fences and were aged at least seven years old.
* Eight out of the last ten winners had been a previous course winner at Cheltenham, and were no bigger price than 10/1 at this stage.
* Seven out of the last ten winners had won a Grade 1 chase at some point during their careers and had won a Graded chase last time out.
If you follow the trends, the first four home in this year’s Champion Chase may look something like this:
1st Voy Por Ustedes
2nd Tamarinbleu
3rd Nickname
4th Newmill
Click here to claim an exclusive £25 free bet with Ladbrokes
Only days after we’d nominated Andreas as the best each way, ante post bet in this year’s Queen Mother Champion Chase, legendary Racing Post tipster, Pricewise, recommended exactly the same horse as the form choice in his weekly column.
We hope you got on early and took the 50/1 that was widely available when we nominated Paul Nicholls’ gelding as the one to be on, as the best price now is 33/1 (with Ladbrokes) and he is as low as 25/1 with many other bookies.
If you prefer trends to form, here are a few pointers to look out for when trying to pick this year’s winner:
* The record of the returning champion in the race (Voy Por Ustedes) is 445U35.
* The record of the previous year’s Arkle winner (My Way De Solzen) is 231121.
* The record of the current Tinkle Creek winner (Twist Magic) is 633131U1F.
* The record of the current Game Spirit winner (to be run later this month) is 2653713F.
* Six of the last seven winners had run in that season’s Tingle Creek.
* The last ten winners had all won over at least 2m 1½f. Twist Magic hasn’t.
* Nine out of the last ten winners had had at least 8 previous runs over fences and were aged at least seven years old.
* Eight out of the last ten winners had been a previous course winner at Cheltenham, and were no bigger price than 10/1 at this stage.
* Seven out of the last ten winners had won a Grade 1 chase at some point during their careers and had won a Graded chase last time out.
If you follow the trends, the first four home in this year’s Champion Chase may look something like this:
1st Voy Por Ustedes
2nd Tamarinbleu
3rd Nickname
4th Newmill
Click here to claim an exclusive £25 free bet with Ladbrokes
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