The definitive performances on the first official Cheltenham trials day (26th January) came from two horses already hotly fancied to win their respective Festival targets.
Firstly, Franchoek followed the route so successfully trodden by his stablemate, Kathcit, last season, by registering his fourth win of the season in the Grade 2 Wragge & Co Juvenile Hurdle. As a result, he hardened to 4/1 favourite (from 5/1) with Ladbrokes for the Triumph Hurdle, and his credentials look bullet proof as he bids to give trainer Alan King a third success in the race in the last four years.
He has all the attributes you want from a top class juvenile hurdler – he jumps and stays well, and his front running tactics should ensure he stays clear of any trouble in the inevitable hurly burly of the big race. He also has good Flat form to his name on a quicker surface, so decent ground at the Festival shouldn’t inconvenience him.
It is hard to see any of the horses he has already met reversing the form with him at Cheltenham, and so it is likely to be left to the likes of Celestial Halo and Binocular to try to lower his colours in March.
Just over half an hour later, Inglis Drever stormed to victory in the Cleeve Hurdle to put himself firmly on track for an unprecedented third World Hurdle victory. Howard Johnson’s stable star handed out a five length beating to old rival Blazing Bailey, nearly the same margin by which he had defeated the same horse in last year’s World Hurdle. The novice, Gone To Lunch, was third.
Inglis Drever has already shown himself to be the best stayer since Baracouda, and a victory at Cheltenham in March would see him surpass even the achievements of that great French hurdler. He looks like being one of the bankers of the Festival and it is hard to make a case for opposing him. Surely only Wichita Lineman and, if he gets some better ground to help his stamina, Hardy Eustace, can stop him now.
For those looking for pointer for future races (albeit probably at a lower level than the Festival), three horses took the eye on Saturday.
The previously out of form Chief Dan George put up a much more promising performance behind Inglis Drever, staying on well at the death to finish fourth. Having won at Aintree before, he may be a threat in the big staying race there in April.
Mark of Love was a long way behind Franchoek when finishing fifth in the Wragge & Co Hurdle. However, he has traveled well in all of his races to date and will surely benefit from some better ground in the spring. He has also qualified for a handicap mark.
Finally, Buck The Legend did remarkably well to finish sixth in the closing handicap hurdle, having been brought to a standstill by a faller two out. He stayed on really well up the hill and looks well handicapped. Both he and Mark of Love look sure to win races in the future.
Tuesday, 29 January 2008
Monday, 28 January 2008
Know chance?
The Letherby & Christopher Chase at Cheltenham on Saturday (26th January) clearly wasn't as strong a renewal of this recognised Gold Cup trial as it has been in recent years. However, the winner, Knowhere, was surely due a bit more respect from the bookmakers in the immediate aftermath of his victory than to be given a quote of 100/1 for the big race.
The winner undoubtedly loves the Gloucestershire track as all of his best performances have come at Prestbury Park, and some of those efforts haven't been far below top class. For example, in the Boylesports.com Gold Cup in 2006, he was second to Exotic Dancer (in receipt of seven pounds) with Festival winners Taranis, Reveillez and Butler's Cabin all behind.
He then gave nearly two stone and a neck meeting to Maljimar in October 2007 (form that was franked by Maljimar's win on the same card on Saturday) and was third in this season's Paddy Power Gold Cup, giving the first two (including another Festival winner, L'Antartique) upwards of five pounds.
Knowhere proved he stays the Gold Cup trip with a fine effort in the Hennessy in December on ground that was too soft for him, and in winning on Saturday he beat Old Vic and Neptune Collognes in a remarkably similar fashion to the way in which Exotic Dancer beat them last season, before going on to finish second to Kauto Star in the Gold Cup.
Knowhere probably won't win the Cheltenham Gold Cup, but at 100/1 he is surely a better each way bet than some of those in front of him in the market such as Our Vic and Mossbank, who are both half the price and far more likely to run in the Ryanair Chase.
And if you still don't think Nigel Twiston-Davies' horse has any sort of chance, cast you mind back to 1990 when a certain Desert Orchid was odds on favourite for that year's Gold Cup, only to be beaten into third by an unconsidered outsider, Norton's Coin.
Shocks often come out of Knowhere.
The winner undoubtedly loves the Gloucestershire track as all of his best performances have come at Prestbury Park, and some of those efforts haven't been far below top class. For example, in the Boylesports.com Gold Cup in 2006, he was second to Exotic Dancer (in receipt of seven pounds) with Festival winners Taranis, Reveillez and Butler's Cabin all behind.
He then gave nearly two stone and a neck meeting to Maljimar in October 2007 (form that was franked by Maljimar's win on the same card on Saturday) and was third in this season's Paddy Power Gold Cup, giving the first two (including another Festival winner, L'Antartique) upwards of five pounds.
Knowhere proved he stays the Gold Cup trip with a fine effort in the Hennessy in December on ground that was too soft for him, and in winning on Saturday he beat Old Vic and Neptune Collognes in a remarkably similar fashion to the way in which Exotic Dancer beat them last season, before going on to finish second to Kauto Star in the Gold Cup.
Knowhere probably won't win the Cheltenham Gold Cup, but at 100/1 he is surely a better each way bet than some of those in front of him in the market such as Our Vic and Mossbank, who are both half the price and far more likely to run in the Ryanair Chase.
And if you still don't think Nigel Twiston-Davies' horse has any sort of chance, cast you mind back to 1990 when a certain Desert Orchid was odds on favourite for that year's Gold Cup, only to be beaten into third by an unconsidered outsider, Norton's Coin.
Shocks often come out of Knowhere.
New kids on the block
The performance of the weekend definitely came at Leopardstown on Sunday, where Sizing Europe shot to the head of the Champion Hurdle market with a scintillating victory in the AIG Europe Champion Hurdle.
The Henry De Bromhead trained gelding was always travelling like the winner and the result was never in doubt from the moment the horse took up the running before the second last. In the end, the margin of victory was 8 lengths, with the old warrior, Hardy Eustace, back in second. Al Eile was third.
Sizing Europe, who landed the Greatwood Hurdle from Osana on his previous start, will not now be seen again until the Festival and he looks a worthy favourite. Not only was his effort visually impressive, it also impressed the clock watchers, and those who snapped up odds about the horse of 8/1 for the Champion Hurdle before Sunday’s contest will be very pleased with themselves. If he makes it to Cheltenham in one piece, even the 3/1 currently available would look generous passed on this performance.
There is little doubt now that a new order has emerged among the top two mile hurdlers with the previous golden generation of Hardy Eustace, Brave Inca, Macs Joy and the like having been overtaken by the new kids on the block - Sizing Europe, Osana, Sublimity and Straw Bear.
Whilst the old guard were all guts, stamina and strength, the new stars seem to posses more of the turn of foot usually associated with Champion Hurdle winners, and it is not hard to envisage Harchibald, Sizing Europe and Sublimity all still being on the bridle jumping the last at the Festival. We could be in for something special!
The Henry De Bromhead trained gelding was always travelling like the winner and the result was never in doubt from the moment the horse took up the running before the second last. In the end, the margin of victory was 8 lengths, with the old warrior, Hardy Eustace, back in second. Al Eile was third.
Sizing Europe, who landed the Greatwood Hurdle from Osana on his previous start, will not now be seen again until the Festival and he looks a worthy favourite. Not only was his effort visually impressive, it also impressed the clock watchers, and those who snapped up odds about the horse of 8/1 for the Champion Hurdle before Sunday’s contest will be very pleased with themselves. If he makes it to Cheltenham in one piece, even the 3/1 currently available would look generous passed on this performance.
There is little doubt now that a new order has emerged among the top two mile hurdlers with the previous golden generation of Hardy Eustace, Brave Inca, Macs Joy and the like having been overtaken by the new kids on the block - Sizing Europe, Osana, Sublimity and Straw Bear.
Whilst the old guard were all guts, stamina and strength, the new stars seem to posses more of the turn of foot usually associated with Champion Hurdle winners, and it is not hard to envisage Harchibald, Sizing Europe and Sublimity all still being on the bridle jumping the last at the Festival. We could be in for something special!
Saturday, 26 January 2008
Long Live the King
King Kicking, the brilliant winner of the 2005 Cheltenham Gold Cup, made his long-awaited comeback at Gowran Park on Thursday (January 24th) after 759 days on the sidelines with tendon trouble, and finished a narrow second to 1/4 favourite Nickname.
There may only have been three runners in the Grade Two event over two miles and a furlong, but it was select trio made up of Kicking King, who has amassed six wins at the highest level, the 2006 Queen Mother Champion Chase winner Newmill and the multiple-Graded winner Nickname.
And the three runners certainly proved that you don’t need a big field to create an exciting finish as less than three lengths separated them at the line.
Not surprisingly, the post race debate focused on the return of Kicking King, who appeared to run a blinder and was surely only beaten by a lack of race fitness. He also clouted the second last, which cost him lengths of momentum at a crucial time.
However, in the cold light of day you can probably look at his performance two ways.
On the plus side, Kicking King has narrowly been beaten by one of the best two mile chasers around, on ground that was probably softer than he would have liked and over a vastly inadequate trip. In addition, had he jumped a bit better, he would surely have won and taken two notable scalps in the process. Had it been Denman who was beaten into second by Newmill and Nickname, we would have been drooling over the performance.
However, being negative for a moment, it is easy to argue that neither Newmill nor Nickname is anywhere near their best at the moment. Newmill hasn’t come close to repeating the level of form he showed when winning the Queen Mother, whilst Nickname was being pushed along here from a long way out and seems to be feeling the effects of a hard season last year when he ran in so many big races on very soft ground. He didn’t jump well here either.
As for Kicking King’s fitness, trainers seem much more able these days to get horses fit at home and whilst he is bound to improve for the run, that is likely to be because his trainer has left something to work on between now and Cheltenham, just as Paul Nicholls will have done with Kauto Star and Denman.
It was great to see Kicking King return to the track, and connections must have been thrilled with his performance. However, the bottom line is that even if he is back to his very best (and that may be a big if) he will probably still need to improve a few pounds to beat Kauto Star.
Nevertheless bookmakers reacted to the performance by slicing his odds for the Gold Cup from 40/1 to around 14/1. The bookmaker now offering the biggest odds are VCbet who offer 16/1.
One thing is for sure, his presence in the Gold Cup field on 14th March would add further luster to a contest that already looks like being one of the most exciting and eagerly anticipated races run for many, many years.
Claim £100 free from VCbet. They will match your first bet with a free bet - up to £50. Then place 5 more bets of £10 and they’ll give you another £50 free bet! Click here to claim.
There may only have been three runners in the Grade Two event over two miles and a furlong, but it was select trio made up of Kicking King, who has amassed six wins at the highest level, the 2006 Queen Mother Champion Chase winner Newmill and the multiple-Graded winner Nickname.
And the three runners certainly proved that you don’t need a big field to create an exciting finish as less than three lengths separated them at the line.
Not surprisingly, the post race debate focused on the return of Kicking King, who appeared to run a blinder and was surely only beaten by a lack of race fitness. He also clouted the second last, which cost him lengths of momentum at a crucial time.
However, in the cold light of day you can probably look at his performance two ways.
On the plus side, Kicking King has narrowly been beaten by one of the best two mile chasers around, on ground that was probably softer than he would have liked and over a vastly inadequate trip. In addition, had he jumped a bit better, he would surely have won and taken two notable scalps in the process. Had it been Denman who was beaten into second by Newmill and Nickname, we would have been drooling over the performance.
However, being negative for a moment, it is easy to argue that neither Newmill nor Nickname is anywhere near their best at the moment. Newmill hasn’t come close to repeating the level of form he showed when winning the Queen Mother, whilst Nickname was being pushed along here from a long way out and seems to be feeling the effects of a hard season last year when he ran in so many big races on very soft ground. He didn’t jump well here either.
As for Kicking King’s fitness, trainers seem much more able these days to get horses fit at home and whilst he is bound to improve for the run, that is likely to be because his trainer has left something to work on between now and Cheltenham, just as Paul Nicholls will have done with Kauto Star and Denman.
It was great to see Kicking King return to the track, and connections must have been thrilled with his performance. However, the bottom line is that even if he is back to his very best (and that may be a big if) he will probably still need to improve a few pounds to beat Kauto Star.
Nevertheless bookmakers reacted to the performance by slicing his odds for the Gold Cup from 40/1 to around 14/1. The bookmaker now offering the biggest odds are VCbet who offer 16/1.
One thing is for sure, his presence in the Gold Cup field on 14th March would add further luster to a contest that already looks like being one of the most exciting and eagerly anticipated races run for many, many years.
Claim £100 free from VCbet. They will match your first bet with a free bet - up to £50. Then place 5 more bets of £10 and they’ll give you another £50 free bet! Click here to claim.
Friday, 25 January 2008
Twisted Logic?
With Haydock’s big meeting having been abandoned after a morning inspection, all eyes were on Ascot on Saturday (January 19th) and the latest renewal of the Victor Chandler Chase.
On the face of it, the defeat in the race of Twist Magic, the current favourite for the Queen Mother Champion Chase, was a big disappointment. However, his eclipse was surely due primarily to the extremely testing conditions at the Berkshire track, and the result hasn’t really dented his championship ambitions too badly.
The horse travelled extremely well for most of the race and looked all over the winner turning out of Swinley Bottom. He was then comprehensively outstayed by the winner up the straight, but I can easily see him reversing the form with Tamarinbleu at the Festival and, for my money, on decent ground, he is still the horse to beat in what looks like being a relatively weak renewal of the Champion Chase. The 5/1 offered by one bookmaker for the winner immediately after the contest looked a total overreaction and makes no appeal.
If Twist Magic is vulnerable in the Queen Mother, then so are most of his rivals at the head of the betting and so if you want to take him on our advice would be to look for an each way outsider, as it would be no surprise at all if there was a big price winner of the race this year.
With the entries having recently closed, one horse worth looking at is a stablemate of the favourite, Andreas, who finally started to fulfil his huge potential when winning last year’s Grand Annual. He has proved himself over course and distance and could make the step up in grade, granted decent ground.
The bookmaker currently offering the best odds on Andreas is Sportingbet whose 50/1 probably won't last long. To open an account with Sportingodds and claim £100 of free bets click here.
On the face of it, the defeat in the race of Twist Magic, the current favourite for the Queen Mother Champion Chase, was a big disappointment. However, his eclipse was surely due primarily to the extremely testing conditions at the Berkshire track, and the result hasn’t really dented his championship ambitions too badly.
The horse travelled extremely well for most of the race and looked all over the winner turning out of Swinley Bottom. He was then comprehensively outstayed by the winner up the straight, but I can easily see him reversing the form with Tamarinbleu at the Festival and, for my money, on decent ground, he is still the horse to beat in what looks like being a relatively weak renewal of the Champion Chase. The 5/1 offered by one bookmaker for the winner immediately after the contest looked a total overreaction and makes no appeal.
If Twist Magic is vulnerable in the Queen Mother, then so are most of his rivals at the head of the betting and so if you want to take him on our advice would be to look for an each way outsider, as it would be no surprise at all if there was a big price winner of the race this year.
With the entries having recently closed, one horse worth looking at is a stablemate of the favourite, Andreas, who finally started to fulfil his huge potential when winning last year’s Grand Annual. He has proved himself over course and distance and could make the step up in grade, granted decent ground.
The bookmaker currently offering the best odds on Andreas is Sportingbet whose 50/1 probably won't last long. To open an account with Sportingodds and claim £100 of free bets click here.
Trials weekend
If you were ever thinking about having an ante post bet on any of the big races at Cheltenham then now really could be the best time to do so. This weekend plays host to no end of Festival trials and there is bound to have been a big shape up in the bookmakers’ markets come Monday morning. If your fancied selection runs well in a trial (or if some of his main market rivals run badly) the big prices you were hoping to get may well disappear.
One word of caution though, the ground this weekend is likely to be far more testing than it typically has been in March, so don’t discount horses that run well but are beaten, if they have previously shown improved form on better ground.
Some of the key races on Saturday, and their participants, include:
* Letheby and Christopher Chase (Cheltenham), a Gold Cup and Ryanair Chase trial featuring Neptune Collonges, Our Vic and State of Play.
* Wragge & Co Juvenile Novices Hurdle (Cheltenham), a Triumph Hurdle trial featuring the current favourite for that race, Franchoek.
* Byrne Group Cleeve Hurdle, featuring no end of World Hurdle aspirants including last year’s winner and hot favourite to retain his crown at this year’s Festival, Inglis Drever.
* Rossignton Main Novices Hurdle (Doncaster), a Supreme Novice Hurdle trial featuring the current favourite for that race, Khyber Kim.
* JCT 600 Mercedez-Benz Doncaster Mares Only Hurdle (Doncaster), featuring the current ante post favourite for the new David Nicholson Hurdle, Chomba Womba.
* Albert Bartlett Novices' Hurdle (Doncaster) a trial for the race of the same name at the Festival.
We’ll be at Cheltenham on Saturday so as to be able to bring you all of the news, gossip and reaction from a meeting, which is now quite fittingly known as Festival Trials Day.
And then on Sunday all eyes will be focused on the big meeting at Leopardstown in Ireland, featuring the AIG Europe Champion Hurdle, which has proved such a great guide to our own Champion Hurdle in recent years. There is also an important Arkle trial on the same card.
All in all, a pivotal weekend in the season, so now is the time to back your judgement. Click here to check out the latest bookmakers free bets for the Cheltenham Festival.
One word of caution though, the ground this weekend is likely to be far more testing than it typically has been in March, so don’t discount horses that run well but are beaten, if they have previously shown improved form on better ground.
Some of the key races on Saturday, and their participants, include:
* Letheby and Christopher Chase (Cheltenham), a Gold Cup and Ryanair Chase trial featuring Neptune Collonges, Our Vic and State of Play.
* Wragge & Co Juvenile Novices Hurdle (Cheltenham), a Triumph Hurdle trial featuring the current favourite for that race, Franchoek.
* Byrne Group Cleeve Hurdle, featuring no end of World Hurdle aspirants including last year’s winner and hot favourite to retain his crown at this year’s Festival, Inglis Drever.
* Rossignton Main Novices Hurdle (Doncaster), a Supreme Novice Hurdle trial featuring the current favourite for that race, Khyber Kim.
* JCT 600 Mercedez-Benz Doncaster Mares Only Hurdle (Doncaster), featuring the current ante post favourite for the new David Nicholson Hurdle, Chomba Womba.
* Albert Bartlett Novices' Hurdle (Doncaster) a trial for the race of the same name at the Festival.
We’ll be at Cheltenham on Saturday so as to be able to bring you all of the news, gossip and reaction from a meeting, which is now quite fittingly known as Festival Trials Day.
And then on Sunday all eyes will be focused on the big meeting at Leopardstown in Ireland, featuring the AIG Europe Champion Hurdle, which has proved such a great guide to our own Champion Hurdle in recent years. There is also an important Arkle trial on the same card.
All in all, a pivotal weekend in the season, so now is the time to back your judgement. Click here to check out the latest bookmakers free bets for the Cheltenham Festival.
Thursday, 24 January 2008
Champion Hurdle – Following the Trends
The entries for this year’s Champion Hurdle have now been published and here are a few of the trends to look out for when trying to pick this year’s winner:
* The record of the returning champion in the race (Sublimity) is P11PR2132.
* The record of the previous year’s Supreme Novice Hurdle winner (Ebaziyan) is F2035.
* The record of the previous years’ Triumph Hurdle winner (Katchit) is 070F6. The last 5 year old to win the race was See You Then in 1985, since when 73 five year olds have tried and failed.
* The record of the current AIG Europe Champion Hurdle winner (to be run this weekend) is 11104514.
* The record of the current Christmas Hurdle winner (Straw Bear) is 534532.
* The record of the current Boylesports Hurdle winner (Osana) is 9S1896.
* The last horse aged 10 or more to win was Sea Pigeon (Hardy Eustace is 11).
* The last ten winners have been aged between 6 and 9, and nine of those had won last time out.
* Nine out of the last ten winners had been a previous course winner at Cheltenham, and the same number had won a Grade 1 hurdle or a Grade 3 handicap hurdle at some point during their careers. 8 out of 10 had won a Grade 1 or Grade 2 hurdle in the same season as winning the Champion.
If you follow the trends, the first four home in this year’s Champion Hurdle may look something like this:
1st Harchibald
2nd Straw Bear
3rd Osana
4th Ebaziyan.
* The record of the returning champion in the race (Sublimity) is P11PR2132.
* The record of the previous year’s Supreme Novice Hurdle winner (Ebaziyan) is F2035.
* The record of the previous years’ Triumph Hurdle winner (Katchit) is 070F6. The last 5 year old to win the race was See You Then in 1985, since when 73 five year olds have tried and failed.
* The record of the current AIG Europe Champion Hurdle winner (to be run this weekend) is 11104514.
* The record of the current Christmas Hurdle winner (Straw Bear) is 534532.
* The record of the current Boylesports Hurdle winner (Osana) is 9S1896.
* The last horse aged 10 or more to win was Sea Pigeon (Hardy Eustace is 11).
* The last ten winners have been aged between 6 and 9, and nine of those had won last time out.
* Nine out of the last ten winners had been a previous course winner at Cheltenham, and the same number had won a Grade 1 hurdle or a Grade 3 handicap hurdle at some point during their careers. 8 out of 10 had won a Grade 1 or Grade 2 hurdle in the same season as winning the Champion.
If you follow the trends, the first four home in this year’s Champion Hurdle may look something like this:
1st Harchibald
2nd Straw Bear
3rd Osana
4th Ebaziyan.
Sunday, 20 January 2008
Festival jockeys
Tony McCoy has stressed that he will not rush his recovery after undergoing a successful operation to repair damage sustained to his T12 vertebra, following a crashing fall at Warwick just over a week ago.
However, after the 12-times champion jockey walked out of the John Radcliffe Hospital in Oxford today, he admitted he hopes to be fighting fit before the Cheltenham Festival.
McCoy’s presence is the saddle would certainly aid the cause of a number of Cheltenham Festival fancies, particularly horses like Exotic Dancer (Gold Cup) and Wichita Lineman (World Hurdle), neither of whom is the easiest of rides.
It won’t be long until bookmakers start betting on who the leading jockey at the Festival will be and, if he makes it there in one piece, McCoy is bound to be one of the favourites, alongside Ruby Walsh.
For punters looking for a bit more value, though, it may pay to take note of Denis O’Regan’s odds when they are published. The Irishman has been in great form during his first season riding in England. His position as stable jockey for Howard Johnson and retained rider for Graham Wylie means he is sure to have an excellent book of rides, including on one of the likely hot favourites, Inglis Drever in the World Hurdle.
In addition, he has picked up big spare rides already this season for both Henrietta Knight and David Pipe and, given his roots, he is bound to be well supported by Irish trainers at the Festival too.
However, after the 12-times champion jockey walked out of the John Radcliffe Hospital in Oxford today, he admitted he hopes to be fighting fit before the Cheltenham Festival.
McCoy’s presence is the saddle would certainly aid the cause of a number of Cheltenham Festival fancies, particularly horses like Exotic Dancer (Gold Cup) and Wichita Lineman (World Hurdle), neither of whom is the easiest of rides.
It won’t be long until bookmakers start betting on who the leading jockey at the Festival will be and, if he makes it there in one piece, McCoy is bound to be one of the favourites, alongside Ruby Walsh.
For punters looking for a bit more value, though, it may pay to take note of Denis O’Regan’s odds when they are published. The Irishman has been in great form during his first season riding in England. His position as stable jockey for Howard Johnson and retained rider for Graham Wylie means he is sure to have an excellent book of rides, including on one of the likely hot favourites, Inglis Drever in the World Hurdle.
In addition, he has picked up big spare rides already this season for both Henrietta Knight and David Pipe and, given his roots, he is bound to be well supported by Irish trainers at the Festival too.
Saturday, 19 January 2008
Cheltenham Going
The poor weather currently sweeping the country has forced a string of meetings to be abandoned, meaning that it has been a relatively quiet time for the sport over the last few days.
Given the amount of rain we have endured recently, it perhaps isn’t surprising that the bookmakers have started betting on the going for the first day of the Festival, and nor is it a shock that soft and heavy ground have been all the rage with punters (soft is now 100/30 from 4/1 with Coral, and heavy 12/1 from 16/1).
If you cast you mind back to last year, though, it was equally wet if not wetter, and it seemed almost impossible to believe that the meeting would start on anything better than soft ground. However, the course drains so well now that a few rain free days in the run up to the Festival was all it took to dry the track out enormously.
The only way, therefore, that I can envisage there being soft ground on day one is for it to actually rain significantly in the days immediately preceding the big event. To a certain extent, what happens now, or even in February, is irrelevant.
The key to finding big price Cheltenham Festival winners in recent years, therefore, has been to look at horses who may have run moderately on their last few outings on soft ground during the winter, but who are likely to improve when encountering better conditions at Cheltenham in the spring.
Given the amount of rain we have endured recently, it perhaps isn’t surprising that the bookmakers have started betting on the going for the first day of the Festival, and nor is it a shock that soft and heavy ground have been all the rage with punters (soft is now 100/30 from 4/1 with Coral, and heavy 12/1 from 16/1).
If you cast you mind back to last year, though, it was equally wet if not wetter, and it seemed almost impossible to believe that the meeting would start on anything better than soft ground. However, the course drains so well now that a few rain free days in the run up to the Festival was all it took to dry the track out enormously.
The only way, therefore, that I can envisage there being soft ground on day one is for it to actually rain significantly in the days immediately preceding the big event. To a certain extent, what happens now, or even in February, is irrelevant.
The key to finding big price Cheltenham Festival winners in recent years, therefore, has been to look at horses who may have run moderately on their last few outings on soft ground during the winter, but who are likely to improve when encountering better conditions at Cheltenham in the spring.
Tuesday, 15 January 2008
Festival sighters
Whilst many of Sunday’s headlines focused on this year’s renewal of one of the most valuable and fiercely contested handicaps of the season, the Pierse Hurdle, a number of Cheltenham Festival aspirants were in action in some of the supporting races on an excellent card at Leopardstown.
The two novice chases were particularly interesting, with Willy Mullins and Ruby Walsh teaming up to land a double courtesy of Scotsirish and Glencove Marina.
Scotsirish’s victory over 2 miles has put him firmly in the picture for The Arkle at Cheltenham. The fact that he and his main rival in the race, Wins Now, pulled well clear of the third suggests the form is decent. Although the ground was heavy, Scotirish may actually prefer better going, being a son of Zaffran. However, there is a slight question mark over whether this trip is his best and he may need further in championship company.
Wins Now at least managed a confidence boosting clear round and there is surely better to come from JP McManus’ gelding as the season progresses.
Glencove Marina’s success half an hour later in the 2m 5f contest was even more impressive.
Although the favourite, Perce Rock, fell, he was well beaten at the time and the winner had his field well strung out by the finish. He is very highly regarded by connections, who feel he has enough speed to drop back in trip at the Festival and go for the Arkle. He’ll have multiple entries though, and looks one to follow wherever he turns up.
The two novice chases were particularly interesting, with Willy Mullins and Ruby Walsh teaming up to land a double courtesy of Scotsirish and Glencove Marina.
Scotsirish’s victory over 2 miles has put him firmly in the picture for The Arkle at Cheltenham. The fact that he and his main rival in the race, Wins Now, pulled well clear of the third suggests the form is decent. Although the ground was heavy, Scotirish may actually prefer better going, being a son of Zaffran. However, there is a slight question mark over whether this trip is his best and he may need further in championship company.
Wins Now at least managed a confidence boosting clear round and there is surely better to come from JP McManus’ gelding as the season progresses.
Glencove Marina’s success half an hour later in the 2m 5f contest was even more impressive.
Although the favourite, Perce Rock, fell, he was well beaten at the time and the winner had his field well strung out by the finish. He is very highly regarded by connections, who feel he has enough speed to drop back in trip at the Festival and go for the Arkle. He’ll have multiple entries though, and looks one to follow wherever he turns up.
Monday, 14 January 2008
The sincerest form of flattery?
Even Pricewise in the Racing Post appears to be reading our Festival blog!
His preview of this year’s Gold Cup, printed in today’s issue of the Racing Post, comes to virtually the same conclusion as our latest analysis of this year’s race that was posted on our blog on Saturday! Pricewise agrees with our assessment that we are likely to see one of the smallest Cheltenham Gold Cup fields for years and that, in looking for an ante post bet, you need to find a big priced outsider to back each way. Not only does he then give a positive mention to Halcon Genelardis (if the going is soft), he also concludes (as we did) that the best two long shots at this stage are Another Promise and Snowy Morning!
We hoped you followed our advice 2 days ago, as the best odds available for Snowy Morning are now 40/1 from 66/1 when advised, with some bookmakers as short as 25/1. Check back regularly for more fantastic insight in the countdown to the 2008 Cheltenham Festival.
Ladbrokes are currently 40/1 about Snowy Morning and 50/1 about Another Promise. Open an account with Ladbrokes today, place a bet of £10 or more and they will match it with a free bet of up to £25. Click here to claim this offer which is exclusive to CheltenhamFestival.net.
His preview of this year’s Gold Cup, printed in today’s issue of the Racing Post, comes to virtually the same conclusion as our latest analysis of this year’s race that was posted on our blog on Saturday! Pricewise agrees with our assessment that we are likely to see one of the smallest Cheltenham Gold Cup fields for years and that, in looking for an ante post bet, you need to find a big priced outsider to back each way. Not only does he then give a positive mention to Halcon Genelardis (if the going is soft), he also concludes (as we did) that the best two long shots at this stage are Another Promise and Snowy Morning!
We hoped you followed our advice 2 days ago, as the best odds available for Snowy Morning are now 40/1 from 66/1 when advised, with some bookmakers as short as 25/1. Check back regularly for more fantastic insight in the countdown to the 2008 Cheltenham Festival.
Ladbrokes are currently 40/1 about Snowy Morning and 50/1 about Another Promise. Open an account with Ladbrokes today, place a bet of £10 or more and they will match it with a free bet of up to £25. Click here to claim this offer which is exclusive to CheltenhamFestival.net.
Saturday, 12 January 2008
Gold Cup entries announced this week
The entries for this year’s Gold Cup have been published. All of the big guns are on the list, but this year’s field will not include Beef Or Salmon, who has been a standing dish in the race over recent years. My Way De Solzen is the other notable absentee.
The race still revolves around the Paul Nicholls pair of Denman and last year’s winner’s Kauto Star, and it is hard to look beyond them. However, from an ante post punting perspective, neither represents much value, whereas Exotic Dancer looks an each way certainty at 12/1, provided the Jonjo O’Neill stable has returned to form by March.
With a number of the other leading candidates likely to be rerouted to the Ryanair Chase to avoid the two favourites, it may also be worth looking at some of the bigger priced runners for some further each way value. The race is likely to cut up significantly, potentially leaving us with one of the smallest fields for years.
Halcon Genelardais would be interesting on very soft ground, but that is rare at Cheltenham these days so the ones to keep an eye on in the build up to the race are Snowy Morning and Another Promise (both currently available at 66/1). The later could be aimed at any of the big races at the Festival, but is very talented and should be followed wherever he turns up.
Last year’s Champion Hurdle hero Sublimity delighted his trainer, John Carr, when put through his paces at Dundalk yesterday and is firmly on target for his pre Festival target, the AIG European Champion Hurdle.
Sublimity may have been well beaten when fourth to Osana in the Boylesports.com International Hurdle at Cheltenham last month, but he travelled like a really good horse that day and it was surely nothing more than a lack of fitness that found him out.
I expect him to put up a much better performance in the AIG. However, don’t be disappointed if he doesn’t win as it is all about the Festival for this horse and I still think he’s a worthy favourite to retain his crown in March. The 4/1 currently on offer will look a very generous price if he makes it to the start of the Champion Hurdle fit and well.
The race still revolves around the Paul Nicholls pair of Denman and last year’s winner’s Kauto Star, and it is hard to look beyond them. However, from an ante post punting perspective, neither represents much value, whereas Exotic Dancer looks an each way certainty at 12/1, provided the Jonjo O’Neill stable has returned to form by March.
With a number of the other leading candidates likely to be rerouted to the Ryanair Chase to avoid the two favourites, it may also be worth looking at some of the bigger priced runners for some further each way value. The race is likely to cut up significantly, potentially leaving us with one of the smallest fields for years.
Halcon Genelardais would be interesting on very soft ground, but that is rare at Cheltenham these days so the ones to keep an eye on in the build up to the race are Snowy Morning and Another Promise (both currently available at 66/1). The later could be aimed at any of the big races at the Festival, but is very talented and should be followed wherever he turns up.
Last year’s Champion Hurdle hero Sublimity delighted his trainer, John Carr, when put through his paces at Dundalk yesterday and is firmly on target for his pre Festival target, the AIG European Champion Hurdle.
Sublimity may have been well beaten when fourth to Osana in the Boylesports.com International Hurdle at Cheltenham last month, but he travelled like a really good horse that day and it was surely nothing more than a lack of fitness that found him out.
I expect him to put up a much better performance in the AIG. However, don’t be disappointed if he doesn’t win as it is all about the Festival for this horse and I still think he’s a worthy favourite to retain his crown in March. The 4/1 currently on offer will look a very generous price if he makes it to the start of the Champion Hurdle fit and well.
Friday, 11 January 2008
2005 Champion on comeback trail
Kicking King is set to return to action at Fairyhouse on 20th January after pleasing connections in a strenuous workout. The former Cheltenham Gold Cup winner has been off the track since landing the King George VI Chase in 2005.
Impressive though Tom Taaffe’s charge was in his heyday, very few horses are able to reach the same level of performance following such a long lay off. Consequently, his current price of 40/1 for this year’s Gold Cup makes little appeal at this stage. It would, however, be great to see Kicking King back in action and so connections will be keeping their fingers crossed that nothing goes wrong between now and his proposed reappearance.
Jack The Giant was an impressive winner of the inaugural Jelson Homes Chase at Leicester this week. The step up in trip clearly suited the Nicky Henderson trained six year old who jumped and travelled well throughout.
It is hard to gauge exactly what Jack The Giant beat, but the fact that he saw out the 2½ miles so well has opened up a number of alternative options for the horse and the Ryanair Chase looks likely to be his Festival target.
He is even better on quicker ground and a breathing operation in the summer really seems to have done the trick. He should go on any shortlist for the Ryanair and VCbet are currently offering the best odds of 10/1, which looks very reasonable.
The form he showed when third in last year’s Arkle suggests that he might struggle against the likes of Voy Por Ustedes and Twist Magic if he is targeted at the Queen Mother Champion Chase instead.
Claim £100 free from VCbet. They will match your first bet with a free bet - up to £50. Then place 5 more bets of £10 and they’ll give you another £50 free bet! Click here to claim.
Impressive though Tom Taaffe’s charge was in his heyday, very few horses are able to reach the same level of performance following such a long lay off. Consequently, his current price of 40/1 for this year’s Gold Cup makes little appeal at this stage. It would, however, be great to see Kicking King back in action and so connections will be keeping their fingers crossed that nothing goes wrong between now and his proposed reappearance.
Jack The Giant was an impressive winner of the inaugural Jelson Homes Chase at Leicester this week. The step up in trip clearly suited the Nicky Henderson trained six year old who jumped and travelled well throughout.
It is hard to gauge exactly what Jack The Giant beat, but the fact that he saw out the 2½ miles so well has opened up a number of alternative options for the horse and the Ryanair Chase looks likely to be his Festival target.
He is even better on quicker ground and a breathing operation in the summer really seems to have done the trick. He should go on any shortlist for the Ryanair and VCbet are currently offering the best odds of 10/1, which looks very reasonable.
The form he showed when third in last year’s Arkle suggests that he might struggle against the likes of Voy Por Ustedes and Twist Magic if he is targeted at the Queen Mother Champion Chase instead.
Claim £100 free from VCbet. They will match your first bet with a free bet - up to £50. Then place 5 more bets of £10 and they’ll give you another £50 free bet! Click here to claim.
2008 Cheltenham Festival build up
As the 2008 Cheltenham Festival gets closer, over the coming weeks the team at CheltenhamFestival.net will be sharing our insight and views on the horses to follow, best bets and general Festival insight. Last year, we tipped an extraordinary 9 winners from 24 races and we welcome any dialogue with fellow Festival punters as the countdown begins to the best week of the year.
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